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MNI Forecast Sees German CPI at +7.5-7.6%

GERMAN DATA
MNI (London)
  • Following a slew of German state CPI data this morning, our forecasts for the July German national CPI print are +0.85% m/m which implies a year-on-year print of +7.5% y/y with an upside risk towards +7.6% y/y. This accounts for 88.1% of the weighting of the aggregate headline numbers.
  • This would leave German CPI edging down from the June level of +7.6% y/y, and implies a substantial 0.7-0.8pp acceleration in the month-on-month reading.
  • The consensus was initially looking for +0.6% m/m- 2 to 3 tenths lower than the state data would suggest.
  • Note that this the national CPI data and does not directly imply the outcomes for the harmonised print, which is the key decision-driving data examined by the ECB.


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