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USDCAD TECHS

Consolidation Mode But Remains Bearish

AUDUSD TECHS

Fails To Hold Onto Thursday’s High

US

'Big Tech' Bill Goes To Senate

COMMODITIES

Oil Up For Fifth Week On Supply Disruption, Geopolitics

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  • The net speculative position on USD have been rising sharply in recent weeks as uncertainty over the Delta variant has been surging; net contracts increased by 72K in the past month to a total of 28.9K in the week ending August 3.
  • This has boosted the USD Positioning Indicator to its highest level in over two years – mirrored in new cycle lows for positioning across AUD, EUR, GBP and CAD.
  • The slow vaccination campaign in the EM world combined with the rise in political instability could continue to support the greenback against EM currencies in the coming weeks.
  • As the percentage of the population having received at least one dose of the Covid vaccine is much lower across emerging markets, the probability of a renewed period of lockdowns imposed by governments to fight the pandemic has been consistently rising.

Full MNI FX Positioning Indicator document here:

MNIFXPositioningIndicator0908.pdf

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