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- The net speculative position on USD have been rising sharply in recent weeks as uncertainty over the Delta variant has been surging; net contracts increased by 72K in the past month to a total of 28.9K in the week ending August 3.
- This has boosted the USD Positioning Indicator to its highest level in over two years – mirrored in new cycle lows for positioning across AUD, EUR, GBP and CAD.
- The slow vaccination campaign in the EM world combined with the rise in political instability could continue to support the greenback against EM currencies in the coming weeks.
- As the percentage of the population having received at least one dose of the Covid vaccine is much lower across emerging markets, the probability of a renewed period of lockdowns imposed by governments to fight the pandemic has been consistently rising.
Full MNI FX Positioning Indicator document here: