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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Executive Summary:
- Net specs on USD have been decreasing in recent weeks as momentum on the greenback eases; net contracts are down 70K since their high of 294K reached in the end of November.
- The rise in Covid uncertainty, political instability in some EM markets and the hawkish Fed had supported the US Dollar in H2 2021; DXY index reached a high at 97 in the end of November before consolidating slightly lower in recent weeks.
- The probability of 4 Fed hikes in 2022 has been gradually rising in the past few months, approaching 80%.
- Even though more rate hikes for this year should increase the preference for the USD in the medium term (especially against Euro and Yen), the ‘big miss’ in Payrolls on Friday could increase the selling pressure on the USD in the near term.
Link to full publication:
FX SPEC POSITIONING - 100122 (1).pdf
Source: Bloomberg/MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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