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MNI Global Macro Outlook - June 2022: Recession Signals

GLOBAL

MNI's June Global Macro Outlook meeting assessed the increasing likelihood of a global recession, and whether inflation will subside as economic activity weakens. The outlook has been emailed to subscribers and is available on our website.


Topics include:

  • Recession fears look well-founded in both macro and market indicators
  • The U.S. was supposed to be resilient but major supports are fading and a recession is becoming consensus
  • Manufacturing is leading the slowdown, but services look set to be dragged down as consumers are “miserable”
  • No guarantee weaker activity / tighter policy will quickly lead to lower inflation, with CPI likely to remain elevated into 2023

Source: GS, BLS, NBER, MNI

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