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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
GLOBAL
MNI's March 2023 Global Macro Outlook meeting assessed the impact of this month's US banking turmoil. Full PDF analysis emailed to subscribers and available here.
- The “No Landing” theory - which hit fever pitch in the first week of March – imploded alongside a few US banks in mid-March, while confidence contagion spread to Europe.
- Central banks “kept calm” and “carried on” with rate hikes in March, but banking crises posed “overtightening” questions.
- Markets began suggesting the core scenario - especially in the US - is now closer to a “hard landing”.
- But it’s too early to tell. The financial tightening implied by the weakness in the US banking sector is suggestive of rate hikes feeding through quickly to the economy, but more evidence is required before concluding this is a broader game-changing crisis.
- It currently looks more like 1998 than 2008. But in the meantime, watch the USD and yield curves.
Source: Fed, CBO, BLS, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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