MNI Global Morning Briefing

     LONDON (MNI) - After a busy Tuesday, a concise yet important Wednesday

appears to be the case for the calendar.

     Amongst the initial success of the Brexit transition deal, the UK picks up

from the triple release yesterday of CPI, House and Producer prices with another

triple release in the morning, starting at 0930GMT with the Public Sector

Finances. This will see the release of the Central Government Net Cash

Requirement and Public Sector Net Borrowing with a prior monthly surplus of

11.62 is expected to deteriorate to a surplus of 1.6.

     At the same time, the UK Labour report will be released. MNI forecasts have

analysts expecting no change in the ILO unemployment rate at 4.4%. However,

there is an expectation of a slight rise in average weekly earnings 3m/m y/y,

when including and excluding bonuses.

     Analysts predict a 0.2 percentage point increase in the figure including

bonuses from 2.5% previously to 2.7%. A 0.1 percentage point increase is

anticipated when excluding bonuses from 2.5% prior to 2.6%. This is in line with

MNI's data analysis on wages picking up in 2018 and combined with weaker than

expected February inflation figures yesterday, could show a pick up in real

wages.

     It may be 0700 Eastern time (1100GMT), but the US gets underway with the

MBA Weekly Applications Index, which showed a prior figure of 0.9%. This is

followed at 1230GMT with the US current account data. With a prior current

account deficit of $100.6bn, MNI forecasts suggest analysts have pencilled in a

further widening of the deficit to $125bn.

     Existing home sales (1400GMT), is expected to rebound only modestly to a

5.41 million annual rate in February after ticking down to 5.38 million in

January. Pending home sales plunged 4.7% in January to the lowest level since

October 2014, a downside risk. The drop in supply remains sharply lower than a

year earlier, keeping prices elevated.

     The US DOE Refinery Utilization and Petroleum Stocks is released at

1430GMT.

     At 1800GMT, the FOMC meet regarding a summary of Economic Projections. This

will be followed by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell holding a press

conference in Washington at 1830GMT.

     The RBNZ official cash rate decision (2000GMT), is forecasted to remain

unchanged from its previous figure of 1.75%.

     For those still up at 0030GMT (I expect a fair few), Australia will release

their monthly labour force survey data. Unemployment and labour participation

rates are expected to remain unchanged at 5.5% and 65.6% respectively. However,

employed persons m/m is expected to increase from a prior of 16 units to 20

units.

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com