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MNI Global Morning Briefing

MNI (London)
     LONDON (MNI) - A busy Thursday awaits which is only fitting after Wednesday
which let's face it had little to report on. 
     Starting in Germany is the Gfk Consumer Climate at 0600GMT. The consumer
mood in Germany stabilized in March after the previous month's minor setback.
The index value in March stood at 10.9, up from 10.8 in February. Given the
economic and income expectations, as well as the propensity to buy being on the
increase again, the Gfk forecast an increase in consumer climate for April to an
index value of 11.0. 
     Next up at 0730GMT is the Riksbank policy decision. SEB note that 68% of
their internal trading room survey expect the Riksbank to postpone the first
rate hike with half of the respondents expecting the new path to point to a hike
at the December meeting as opposed to the September meeting. 
     Moving to the UK is the CBI Distributive Trades data at 1000GMT. The
expected sales balance for April is at 23 units compared to March's
disappointing report sales balance of 5. 
     The ECB Monetary Policy decision is at 1145GMT in Frankfurt and is not
expected by analysts to change from its current refinancing rate of 0%, interest
rate on marginal lending of 0.25% and the deposit facility rate of -0.40%. All
focus will be on whether they make any tweaks to the wording of the statement on
guidance.
     The level of initial jobless claims (due at 1230GMT)is expected to rise by
1,000 to 233,000 in the April 21, gaining back the decline from the previous
week. The four-week moving average would rise by 3,750 in the coming week as the
218,000 level in the March 24 week drops out of the calculation, assuming the
MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions.
     Durable goods orders (also 1230GMT) are expected to rise by 1.2% in March
after a 3.0% gain in February. Boeing orders surged to a total of 197 from 30 in
the previous month, suggesting non-defence aircraft orders could post another
sharp gain. Orders excluding transportation are expected to post a 0.5% increase
after a 1.0% gain in February.
     Also at 1230GMT is the advance goods trade. The previous advance goods
trade gap stood at -USD77 billion, with advance wholesale inventories and retail
inventories growing at 1% and 0.4% respectively.
     Moving to Canada and 1230GMT sees their payroll and employment data for
February. Average weekly earnings in January saw growth of 3.2%. 
     The final of the 1230GMT batch is a press conference in Frankfurt following
the Governing Council meeting of the ECB. 
     The last of the US data is at 1400GMT with the Housing Vacancies rate which
previously grew at 1.6%.
     Sofia in Bulgaria closes out the afternoon by hosting ECB Supervisory Board
Chair Daniele Nouy at Exchange of views.
     Moving into the evening at 2301GMT is the UK Gfk monthly consumer
confidence. When the median estimate from analyst is rounded up, it suggests the
index value is likely to move downward a touch from -7 in March to -8 in April,
suggesting that the recent upward trend in consumer confidence in the UK is not
here to stay. 
     Japan's triple release of CPI, Industrial Production and Retail Sales is
not to be missed at 2345GMT. CPI for March is expected to remain at 0.8%,
whereas industrial production on a m/m basis is anticipated to fall from 2%
growth previously to 0.5%. Retail sales is also expected to see downward growth,
falling from 1.7% y/y to an anticipated 1.3%. 
     Australia is next at 0130GMT with their quarterly producer price index.
Previous y/y and q/q growth stood at 1.7% and 0.6% respectively.
     The calendar wraps up for Thursday at 0300GMT with the BOJ releasing the
outcome from the two-day policy board meeting.  
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
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