MNI Global Morning Briefing

     LONDON (MNI) - The calendar has had a busy run so far this week, which can

excuse a slightly slower Thursday. Unsurprisingly, the bulk of the data is from

the US. 

     However, at 0800GMT he Norges Bank policy decision will be published. As

Tuesday's MNI State of Play suggests, the Norges Bank is set to reprise its

"after the summer" line on a rate hike, with policy set to be left unchanged and

no new collective rate projection published. 

     Next up at 0830GMT, UK release the services PMI after Wednesday saw an

improvement in the construction PMI, albeit at a pace below the considered

growth threshold for construction of 53. Services is expected by analysts to

pick up in April to 53.8 after March's PMI of 51.7 was attributed to the poor

weather stopping consumers going out to shop and eat.

     The Euro Area 'Flash' Inflation estimate (0900GMT) is pencilled in by

analysts to rise slightly, with the HICP y/y forecasted at 1.4% for April

compared to March's 1.3%. However, there is likely to be some downside risk in

this estimate resulting from fairly weak inflation data in France, Germany,

Spain and Italy. Industrial Producer Prices is also released at 0900GMT and

previously saw y/y and m/m growth of 1.6% and 0.1% respectively. 

     Europe finishes early in the afternoon when, at 1200GMT, ECB Executive

Board Member Vitor Constancio speaks in Frankfurt before Benoit Coeure takes the

stage a bit later on at 1230GMT in Frankfurt. 

     The level of initial jobless claims (1230GMT) is expected to rebound in the

April 28 week after a decline of 24,000 in the previous week to a 48-year low

that was due in large part to the timing of a school break in New York. The

four-week moving average would still decline in the coming week as the 242,000

level in the March 31 week drops out of the calculation, assuming the MNI

forecast is correct and there are no revisions. This would break the string of

gains for the average in recent weeks.

     International trade data at 1230GMT is released for both US and Canada. In

the US, the international trade gap is expected to narrow sharply to $50.0

billion in March from a $57.6 billion gap in February. The advance estimate of

the Census goods trade gap narrowed sharply to $68.0 billion, with exports up

2.5% and imports down 2.1%. In Canada, the international trade gap is also

expected to narrow to CAD2.3 billion from a prior of CAD2.7 billion. 

     Nonfarm productivity (the last of the 1230GMT data) is expected to rise

0.9% in the first quarter after a flat reading in the previous quarter. The

output component should be softer, but still positive, while hours worked growth

roughly unchanged. Unit labour costs are expected to rise 3.0% after a 2.5% jump

in the fourth quarter.

     The ISM nonmanufacturing index and Factory Orders is the last of the US

data at 1400GMT. ISM nonmanufacturing is expected to fall to a reading of 58.1

in April from 58.8 in March. The Philadelphia nonmanufacturing index fell to

27.6, while the flash Markit Services index rose to 54.4.Factory orders are

expected to rise solidly in March. Durable goods orders jumped by 2.6% in the

month on another sharp gain in aircraft orders, but nondurables orders are

expected to be negatively impacted by soft energy prices. Factory orders are

forecast to be soft excluding the transportation component, as durable orders

excluding transportation were flat.

     SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan will speak in Zurich, Switzerland at 1600GMT. 

     Closing out the calendar is Australia and China. Starting in Australia at

0130GMT is the RBA Statement on monetary policy. This is followed up with

China's Caixin Services PMI. The previous PMI figure for March stood at 52.3. 

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com