MNI Global Morning Briefing

     LONDON (MNI) - Friday's calendar shows a reversal in the recent trend, with

Europe dominating the schedule and the US taking a back seat. Also surprising is

the UK taking a long weekend with no data to report on Friday.

     Starting in France at 0645GMT is their current account and foreign trade

data. February saw a current account deficit of EUR2 billion and foreign trade

showing a trade deficit of EUR5.2 billion.

     Next up is Spain, with their unemployment figures at 0700GMT. Previously,

the unemployment rate declined on a m/m and y/y basis by 1.37% and 7.56%

respectively.

     Starting at 0715GMT is Spain's services PMI, which was at 55.8 for March.

Followed up half an hour later at 0745GMT is Italy's services PMI which was

slightly lower than Spain's at 53.5.

     No time for a break as at 0750GMT is the France services PMI and was the

best out of the lot in March at 57.4. Next up at 0755GMT is Germany with a prior

March figure of 54.1 Putting this altogether in March saw an Eurozone services

PMI of 55.0 and analysts do not anticipate this changing for the month of April.

     Although the US does not have a lot of data to report on, its nonfarm

payrolls, the bellwether monthly report, should not be missed at 1230GMT.

     Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 185,000 in April after a much

weaker-than-expected 103,000 rise in March and a strong 326,000 rise in

February. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 4.0% after holding steady

at 4.1% in recent months. Hourly earnings are forecast to rise 0.2% after a 0.3%

gain, while the average workweek is expected to hold steady at 34.5 hours for

another month.

     Over the last 10 years of forecasts for April payrolls, there were seven

misses to the low side in the last 10 years (seen as positives in the graph

below), so there is a much greater risk of analysts aiming too low this month.

The absolute average miss over the last 10 years in April was 49,900, up from

41,900 in March, with sizable underestimates.

     March payrolls were much weaker than expected, a reverse of the

stronger-than-expected February gain. There has been a tendency for payrolls

levels to be revised up from their first estimates recently, including adding

more to the February gain.

     Canada is next at 1400GMT with their Ivey PMI which previously stood at

59.8.

     Starting at 1645GMT is New York Federal Reserve Bank President William

Dudley speaking in New York City. Then, at 1900GMT is San Francisco Federal

Reserve Bank President John Williams speaking on the natural rate of interest at

Stanford, California.

     At 2130GMT is Vice Chairman for Supervision Randal Quarles speaking on

liquidity regulation at Stanford also and is followed up at 2245GMT by Lorie

Logan deliver remarks on the future of the central bank balance sheet.

     The final of the speeches is at 0000GMT with Dalls Federal Reserve Bank

President Rob Kaplan speaking on monetary policy and reform in practice at

Stanford.

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com