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LONDON (MNI) - Friday's calendar shows a reversal in the recent trend, with
Europe dominating the schedule and the US taking a back seat. Also surprising is
the UK taking a long weekend with no data to report on Friday.
Starting in France at 0645GMT is their current account and foreign trade
data. February saw a current account deficit of EUR2 billion and foreign trade
showing a trade deficit of EUR5.2 billion.
Next up is Spain, with their unemployment figures at 0700GMT. Previously,
the unemployment rate declined on a m/m and y/y basis by 1.37% and 7.56%
respectively.
Starting at 0715GMT is Spain's services PMI, which was at 55.8 for March.
Followed up half an hour later at 0745GMT is Italy's services PMI which was
slightly lower than Spain's at 53.5.
No time for a break as at 0750GMT is the France services PMI and was the
best out of the lot in March at 57.4. Next up at 0755GMT is Germany with a prior
March figure of 54.1 Putting this altogether in March saw an Eurozone services
PMI of 55.0 and analysts do not anticipate this changing for the month of April.
Although the US does not have a lot of data to report on, its nonfarm
payrolls, the bellwether monthly report, should not be missed at 1230GMT.
Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 185,000 in April after a much
weaker-than-expected 103,000 rise in March and a strong 326,000 rise in
February. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 4.0% after holding steady
at 4.1% in recent months. Hourly earnings are forecast to rise 0.2% after a 0.3%
gain, while the average workweek is expected to hold steady at 34.5 hours for
another month.
Over the last 10 years of forecasts for April payrolls, there were seven
misses to the low side in the last 10 years (seen as positives in the graph
below), so there is a much greater risk of analysts aiming too low this month.
The absolute average miss over the last 10 years in April was 49,900, up from
41,900 in March, with sizable underestimates.
March payrolls were much weaker than expected, a reverse of the
stronger-than-expected February gain. There has been a tendency for payrolls
levels to be revised up from their first estimates recently, including adding
more to the February gain.
Canada is next at 1400GMT with their Ivey PMI which previously stood at
59.8.
Starting at 1645GMT is New York Federal Reserve Bank President William
Dudley speaking in New York City. Then, at 1900GMT is San Francisco Federal
Reserve Bank President John Williams speaking on the natural rate of interest at
Stanford, California.
At 2130GMT is Vice Chairman for Supervision Randal Quarles speaking on
liquidity regulation at Stanford also and is followed up at 2245GMT by Lorie
Logan deliver remarks on the future of the central bank balance sheet.
The final of the speeches is at 0000GMT with Dalls Federal Reserve Bank
President Rob Kaplan speaking on monetary policy and reform in practice at
Stanford.
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.