MNI Global Morning Briefing

     LONDON (MNI) - The Whitsun holiday is no more, with the UK and Europe ready

to take the lead in the morning.

     Starting at 0530GMT in France, unemployment data for March will be

published. Previously, unemployment quarter on quarter was at 8.9% for February.

     Attack of the PMIs

     From 0700GMT France and Germany's flash manufacturing and services PMIs

will be published. This is followed afterwards with the Eurozone PMI data.

France's manufacturing and services PMI data for May at 0700GMT is expected by

analysts to remain fairly neutral from April, with manufacturing expected to

fall very slightly from 53.8 in April to 53.7 in May. Services PMI is expected

to remain unchanged at 57.4.

     Next is Germany at 0730GMT. Telling a similar story to France in terms of

analyst expectations, services PMI is expected to remain unchanged at 53.0,

compared to manufacturing which is expected to fall by 0.3 units from 58.1 in

April to 57.8 in May.

     Putting these and the other Eurozone countries together accommodates the

release of the Eurozone composite, manufacturing and services PMI at 0800GMT.

MNI median estimates suggest an unchanged composite PMI at 55.1 for May. The

manufacturing and services PMI follows fairly closely the pattern in France and

Germany with manufacturing expected to fall from 56.2 to 56.0 and services

expected to fall from 54.7 to 54.6.

     Before the UK takes the reins at 0830GMT with its CPI and PPI data, RBA

Governor Philip Lowe speaks in Sydney, Australia at 0800GMT. UK CPI is not

expected by analysts to change from its prior y/y figure of 2.5%. However, this

may be hiding upward pressure from components such as energy and non-alcoholic

beverages.

     Whilst there may be some lag before the rise in crude oil will be felt in

headline CPI, producer input prices will feel the squeeze. Despite, the 1.4%

strengthening in the sterling effective exchange rate, the 6.7% rise in crude

oil points to a y/y PPI input rate of 5.8% according to MNI median estimates, up

from 4.7% in March. PPI output y/y is expected to fall slightly from 2.4% to

2.3%.

     At 0900GMT is ECB Supervisory Board member Ignazio Angeloni participating

in a panel in Brussels, France.

     The next piece of data is in the UK with the CBI Distributive Trades at

1000GMT.

     New home sales in the US(1400GMT) are expected to slow to a 678,000 annual

rate in April following a sharp gain in March and upward revisions to January

and February. Unadjusted sales were up 11.5% from a year earlier in March.

Meanwhile, home supply was flat month/month, but up 13.2% year/year, so the

supply is there if demand increases.

     Undoubtedly what markets are hungry for and what MNI analysis has pointed

to is the FOMC minutes at 1800GMT in Washington. This is followed up shortly

after at 1815GMT with Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari

participating in a Q&A in North Dakota. Worth noting is Kashkari noted concerns

about the central bank getting too-aggressive with interest-rate hikes.

     Finishing up the calendar is New Zealand and the UK. New Zealand release

their trade balance at 2245GMT with a prior trade deficit of NZD86 million

expected by analysts to recover to a surplus of NZD200 million.

     Lastly, at 2301GMT is the UK Monthly HR Pay Deals. XpertHR data previously

saw a third consecutive rolling quarter in which pay awards had been recorded at

2.5%- the longest period of time since early 2012 that pay awards have been

worth more than 2%.

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com