MNI Global Morning Briefing

     LONDON (MNI) - Thursday marks a pretty vacant calendar, starting at 0830GMT

in the UK with the latest retail sales data. After rises in retail sales m/m for

both April and May, analysts anticipate the June m/m retail sales to decline by

0.6% and the figure excluding fuel to drop by 0.3%.

     The level of US initial jobless claims, due at 1230GMT, is expected to

rebound by 6,000 to 220,000 in the July 14 employment survey week after a

surprise 18,000 decline to 214,000 in the previous week. Summer retooling

shutdowns typically make July claims data less reliable. The level of claims was

at 218,000 in the June 16 employment survey week. The four-week moving average

would rise by only 500 in the coming week as that 218,000 level in the June 16

week drops out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and

there are no revisions.

     The Philadelphia Fed index in the US (due at the same time) is expected to

rebound modestly to a reading of 22.0 in July after a sharp decline to 19.9 in

June.

     At 1300GMT Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Randal Quarles will speak in New

York.

     The index of leading indicators (1400GMT) is forecast to rise by 0.4% in

June. Positive contributions are expected from a rising stock prices and a

likely rebound in factory orders. A decline in consumer expectations may provide

some offset.

     Finishing the calendar at 2330GMT in Japan is the CPI data. A prior core

national CPI rate of 0.7% y/y is expected to rise to 0.9%.

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com