MNI Global Morning Briefing

     LONDON (MNI) - The Bank of Japan gets the calendar underway Thursday when

Policy Board member Anamiya give a news conference at 0500GMT.

     Next up is Spain at 0700GMT, with their latest unemployment data. The

previous y/y unemployment rate was -5.97%. Switzerland's retail sales are

shortly after at 0715GMT. Previous y/y growth in retail sales was -0.1%.

     A little later is the UK's construction PMI data, due at 0830GMT. The

previous reading of 53.1 is anticipated by analysts to slip to 52.8.

     Before the widely anticipated Bank of England interest rate decision, Euro

Area industrial producer prices are set for release at 0900GMT. The previous y/y

growth rate was 3.0%.

     Straight to 1100GMT and what markets in Europe at least were undoubtedly

waiting for today. The Bank of England interest rate decision is expected to

show the majority of MPC members voting for a 25bps hike to increase the Bank

Rate from 0.5% currently to 0.75%. There was no disagreement on this outlook

from an MNI poll of 22 analysts.

     The release will also see for the first time the Bank of England produce a

forecast for r*. Analysts also expect the BOE's asset purchase programme to

remain unchanged from before with stg435bn gilt purchases and stg10bn of

corporate bond purchases. Along-side this interest rate decision will be the

quarterly inflation report.

     Across the Atlantic, the US calendar gets underway at 1230GMT with the

release of the latest Jobless initial claims data.

     The level of initial claims in the US (1230GMT) is expected to rise by only

1,000 to 218,000 in the July 28 week after a rebound of 9,000 to a still-low

217,000 level in the previous week. The four-week moving average would fall by

3,500 in the coming week as the 232,000 level in the June 30 week drops out of

the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no

revisions.

     US factory orders, due at 1400GMT, are expected to rise by 0.2% in June.

Durable goods orders rose by 1.0% in the month on a solid gain in transportation

orders, but nondurables orders are expected to pull back sharply after an

energy-related surge in May. Durable orders excluding transportation were up

0.4%, suggesting factory orders excluding transportation should post another

gain.

     Overnight in Thursday, the BOJ will release the minutes of the June

14th-15th policy meeting at 2350GMT.

     This is followed up in the early hours of the morning with Australia's

retail trade data at 0130GMT. The m/m retail trade grew 0.4% and 0.2% on a q/q

basis.

     The Caixin july services PMI in China will be released at 1345GMT. The

previous reading was 53.9.

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com