MNI Global Morning Briefing

     LONDON (MNI) - Thursday's data calendar gets underway early, with the

release of Switzerland's Q2 GDP data at 0545GMT. Q1 saw q/q growth of 0.6%. 

     Germany's manufacturing orders data for July is expected at 0600GMT. The

previous y/y numbers showed a decline of 0.8%. 

     The most talked about release on Thursday's early calendar is the Riksbank

policy announcement at 0730GMT. No change is expected from the current -0.5%,

although many are looking out for changes in the statement signalling a hike

near the end of the year or the beginning of next year. 

     The OECD leading indicator for the Eurozone is at 1000GMT. June saw an

index reading of 99.8.

     ECB Executive Board member Sabine Lautenschlaeger speaks in Vienna at

1145GMT. 

     A double release in the US comes at 1230GMT with the publication of initial

jobless claims and the final non-farm productivity. 

     The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall by 1,000 to 212,000

in the September 1 week after a modest increase of 3,000 to 213,000 in the

previous week. Any comparison to a year ago is tainted by the hurricanes that

hit in early-September 2017. The four-week moving average would fall by 500 in

the coming week as the 214,000 level in the August 4 week rolls out of the

calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions.

     Nonfarm productivity is expected to be revised up very slightly to a 3.0%

pace from the 2.9% gain in the preliminary estimate due to a small upward

adjustment in output. Unit labour costs are expected to be revised unrevised

from the 0.9% drop in the preliminary estimate.

     There is another double release from the US is at 1400GMT with the ISM

nonmanufacturing index and factory orders. 

     The ISM nonmanufacturing index is expected to rise to a reading of 56.8 in

August from 55.7 in July. The Philadelphia nonmanufacturing index fell to 41.7,

while the flash Markit Services index dipped to 55.2. 

     Factory orders are expected to fall by 0.5% in July. Durable goods orders

declined by 1.7% in the month on a sharp drop in transportation orders, while

nondurables orders are expected to decline on softer energy prices. Durable

orders excluding transportation were up 0.2%, so total factory orders excluding

transportation are expected to rise slightly.

     The last speaker for the day is slated for 1845GMT, when BOC Senior Deputy

Governor Carolyn Wilkins speaks at Regina, Canada. 

     At some point in the early hours of Friday, China's FX reserves will be

released. The y-t-d reserves for July were USD 3.12 trln. 

     Up next is Japan with their household spending data at 2330GMT and average

wages at 0000GMT. Household spending had y/y growth previously in July at -1.2%.

The MNI median for August lies at -1.0%. Total wages are for the month of July,

with the June prior showing growth in total wages of 3.3% y/y. 

     Month-on-month housing finance growth in Australia for July is at 0130GMT.

The growth in June was -1.1% on a m/m basis. 

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com