MNI Global Morning Briefing

     LONDON (MNI) - Thursday sees a pick up in terms of data releases. At

0700BST final GDP data for Germany is published. That is followed by the Markit

flash PMI releases for France (0815BST), Germany (0830BST) and the Eurozone

(0900BST). Also, at 0900BST the German IFO index is released. In the US, the

publication of initial jobless claims and new home sales will be closely

watched.

     Manufacturing PMIs remain weak in Europe

     German final GDP is expected to register in line with the flash results of

0.4% q/q and 0.7% y/y, confirming that the German economy rebounded strongly at

the start of the year, after contracting slightly in Q3 and holding steady

(0.0%) in Q4.

     France's manufacturing PMI is expected to register at April's level of 50

in May. The index fell below 50 in March and remains below its long-term

average. After a disappointing reading in March, France's services PMI rebound

modestly in April and registered at 50.5. It is expected to increase further to

50.8 in May.

     Germany's manufacturing PMI improved slightly in April to 44.4 but remains

weak below the 50-neutral threshold since four consecutive months. The services

PMI on the other hand registered at 55.7 in April, the strongest reading since

Sept 2018. According to the MNI median the mfg PMI increases to 44.8 in May

while the services PMI is projected to decline to 55.4.

     The manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone climbed up from 47.5 in March to

47.9 in April and is expected to rise to 48 in May. The services PMI fell

slightly in April to 52.8 from 53.3 in March. The services PMI is anticipated to

pick up modestly to 53 in May.

     After a reading of 99.2 in April, the Ifo Index is projected to change

marginally in May to 99 with an improvement in the current situation being

offset by a slight decline in expectations.

     Claims about to rise again?

     The level of US initial jobless claims is expected to rise by 3,000 to

215,000 in the May 18 survey week after falling by 16,000 to 212,000 in the

previous week. Claims were at a decades-low level of 193,000 in the April 13

survey week, so the comparison will be unfavourable. The four-week moving

average would fall by 3,750 this week as the 230,000 level in the April 20 week

rolls out of the calculation.

     The pace of new home sales is forecast to slow to 666,000 in April after

solid increases in the previous three months that lifted the current month above

its year-ago level.

     At 1230BST the ECB releases its account of the April Monetary Policy

Meeting. Further highlights in terms of speeches are ECB's Lane and Nowotny,

Riksbank's Ingves, San Francisco Fed's Daly and Dallas Fed's Kaplan.

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com