Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Friday kicks off with the publication of the UK's short-term monthly indicators at 0700GMT, followed by French inflation figures at 0745GMT. In the US the publication of retail sales at 1330GMt is the highlight of the day.
UK GDP seen declining amid November lockdown
Source: Bloomberg
A sharp downturn is expected for November, as the UK saw a move into lockdown 2.0. Analysts expect GDP to decline 4.6%; substantial but far from April's 20% drop. The growth rate of monthly GDP has decelerated since July and eased to 0.4% in October. While the industrial sector grew at a faster pace in October than in the previous month, service sector growth slowed to 0.2%, down from 1.0% seen in September. In November markets see a 5.7% decline in services which will be the biggest drag. Both industrial production and construction output are forecast to post another increase in November, although at a slower pace of 0.5% and 0.8%, respectively. December is expected to see a modest recovery because some areas came out of lockdown, but the re-introduction of stay-at-home guidance in January will weigh on Q1.
French inflation expected to register at flash result
Final French inflation is expected to register in line with the flash results showing a flat reading in December. The annual HICP ticked up to 0.2% in November after it rose to 0.1% in October. According to December's flash estimate food prices decelerated, while prices for tobacco remained unchanged. Energy inflation declined at a slower pace than in November and prices for manufactured goods fell at a faster pace in December, while service inflation remained unchanged.
US retail sales seen unchanged
Source: Bloomberg
U.S. retail sales were likely unchanged in December after November's larger-than-expected 1.1% drop, according to Bloomberg's survey. Mobility was constrained as service businesses in some areas were mandated to close and tighter social distancing guidelines restricted holiday gatherings. Weakness in restaurant receipts and store sales should be at least partially offset by surging online sales.
The events calendar remains quiet with the only highlights being speeches by ECB's Andrea Enria and Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.