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MNI GLOBAL MORNING BRIEFING: PMIs To The Fore

Tuesday throws up a full calendar of policymaker speeches, but as important, the first look at the May global PMI data, giving a clear lead on the direction of the global economy.

UK public borrowing seen above March levels (0700BST)

UK public sector borrowing is seen higher in April compared to March, with analysts looking for a total of GBP18.9 billion. However, that is well below the GBP 24.3 billion recorded a year ago. Tax receipts have risen strongly, helping take some of the pain out of a likely GBP 1.5 billion increase in RPI-linked interest payments on a year ago.

French manufacturing sentiment seen higher (0745BST)

French manufacturing sentiment is seen modestly lower in May, with analysts looking for a dip to 107 from 108 in April.

Global PMIs to show slowing growth

Major PMIs are seen modesty lower in May, with a slight slowdown in services and manufacturing. French composite PMI seen at 56.9 versus 57.2 in April, with the German composite at 53.9 versus 54.0 and the Eurozone at 55.1 versus 55.8.

The UK composite PMI is expected to decline to 56.5 from 58.2, while the US is expected to ease to 55.7 from 56.0.

UK CBI distributive trade seen modestly higher (1100BST)

UK retailing is expected to recover modestly in May, although still sitting at a negative balance, the latest CBI Distributive Trade survey is expected to show.

US new home sales to slow (1500 BST)

Total new home sales by unit are expected to have slowed in Aprril, the latest data from the Census Bureau will show, with analysts looking for a decline to 750,000 from 763,000 in March. On month, sales are expected to have declines at a slower pace than last month, lower by 1.7%.

Its a busy day for policymaker speeches, with the Fed chair Jerome Powell and ECB President Christine Lagarde both expected to speak.

DateGMT/LocalImpactFlagCountryEvent
24/05/20220600/0700***UK Public Sector Finances
24/05/20220645/0845**FR Manufacturing Sentiment
24/05/20220715/0915**FR IHS Markit Services PMI (p)
24/05/20220715/0915**FR IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (p)
24/05/20220730/0930**DE IHS Markit Services PMI (p)
24/05/20220730/0930**DE IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (p)
24/05/20220800/1000**EU IHS Markit Services PMI (p)
24/05/20220800/1000**EU IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (p)
24/05/20220800/1000**EU IHS Markit Composite PMI (p)
24/05/20220830/0930***UK IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (flash)
24/05/20220830/0930***UK IHS Markit Services PMI (flash)
24/05/20220830/0930***UK IHS Markit Composite PMI (flash)
24/05/20220900/1000*UK Index Linked Gilt Outright Auction Result
24/05/20221000/1100**UK CBI Distributive Trades
24/05/2022-EU ECB de Guindos at ECOFIN Meeting
24/05/20221230/0830**US Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index
24/05/20221255/0855**US Redbook Retail Sales Index
24/05/20221345/0945***US IHS Markit Manufacturing Index (flash)
24/05/20221345/0945***US IHS Markit Services Index (flash)
24/05/20221400/1000***US New Home Sales
24/05/20221400/1000**US Richmond Fed Survey
24/05/20221620/1220US Fed Chair Jerome Powell
24/05/20221700/1300*US US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Note
24/05/20221800/2000EUECB Lagarde Opens World Economic Forum Dinner
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com

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