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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
The main data events to follow in Europe on Monday are the final manufacturing PMIs for Spain (0815BST), Italy (0845BST), France (0850BST), Germany (0855BST) and the EZ (0900BST). In the US, the release of the ISM manufacturing PMI will be closely watched.
Final manufacturing PMIs seen at flash estimate
Manufacturing sector business activity grew strongly in recent months, despite high infection rates and renewed tight restrictions. The flash manufacturing PMIs for France, Germany and the EZ remained well above the 50-mark in April, signalling expansion in the sector. While the EZ flash manufacturing PMI jumped to a record high of 63.3, the German and French indices eased to a two-month low of 66.4 and 59.2, respectively. Markets expect the final prints to register in line with the flash results.
The EZ report noted that output rose for the tenth consecutive months and Germany led the factory upturn, despite the small downtick. However, supply shortages led to another record increase in input cost inflation and supplier delivery times lengthened to a record high as well.
Italy's and Spain's manufacturing PMIs are forecast to increase further in April to 61.0 and 59.0, respectively. Both indicators rose sharply in March with the Spanish index rising to 56.9, its highest level since December 2006, while the Italian index jumped to a 21-year high of 59.8.
ISM manufacturing PMI seen higher
The ISM manufacturing PMI is expected to rise to 65.0 in April, after increasing to 64.7 in March, which was the highest level since Dec 1983. The indicator remains in expansion since June 2020 and all main five categories saw monthly gains in March with Employment leading the way. Similar survey evidence is line with market forecasts. The Chicago Business Barometer surged to the highest level since 1983, while the flash IHS manufacturing PMI rose to a record high in April.
The main events to follow on Monday include speeches by ECB's Andrea Enria, New York Fed's John Williams and Fed's Jerome Powell.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.