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MNI GLOBAL MORNING BRIEFING: PMIs Eyed

Wednesday's data focus is on PMIs across the Eurozone, UK and the US.

Swiss consumer inflation data to hit three year high (0730 GMT)

Swiss inflation is forecast to come in at 1.4% y/y for November, marginally higher than 1.2% y/y last month and surpassing the highest annual inflation since Summer 2018. The acceleration is largely on the backs of inflated energy prices, but overall remains well below the levels seen in neighboring countries. Analysts expect the monthly reading to contract by -0.1% in November, down from October’s reading of 0.3% despite the upward trend this year.

Manufacturing PMIs Eurozone countries holding steady (Spain 0815 / Italy 0845 / France 0850 / Germany 0855 GMT)

Individual Eurozone countries are all expected to have relatively stable PMIs this month, in line with flash readings where seen, and all coming in above the 50 mark and implying continued expansion, despite downward pressures of prevailing supply chain disruptions and input shortages across the region.

Spanish PMI looks set to increase from 57.4 in October to 57.9 for November. Italy’s manufacturing PMI looks also set to increase marginally from 61.1 in October to 61.2 for November.

Analysts expect French PMI to increase to 54.6 for November, up from 53.6 for October. German PMI is projected to show no changes to the prelim number 57.6, dampening from October’s 57.8 as the manufacturing continues to come under strains of high fuel prices and supply chin disruptions, with the global semiconductor shortage continuing to affect the automotive industry.

Eurozone PMI (0900 GMT)

Markets look towards manufacturing sector numbers for the Eurozone, with eyes perhaps set to be drawn to the prices component following elevated CPI and PPIs across the region. Consensus expects the IHS manufacturing PMI to remain stable at 58.6 for November, remaining around the slumped level of the last three months as supply chain disruptions persist and the auto sector remains surprised markedly due to shortages in semi-conductors.

Inflation is certainly becoming more of a threat to the ECB's outlook -- at least in the near-term, with VP Luis de Guindos stating Tuesday that there is a “risk that inflation will not go down as quickly and as much as predicted”.

UK PMI (0930 GMT)

Analysts predict UK PMI to come in at 58.2 in November, in line with the flash forecast and up from 57.8 in October, as output, employment and orders rose despite this being dampened by both input and labour shortages.

Amongst the policymakers speaking Wednesday is Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey.

MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com

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