MNI Global Morning Calendar

     LONDON (MNI) - Tuesday throws up a busy data day, heavily dominated by

European releases, with German GDP, UK unemployment and the German ZEW set to

dominate.

     The calendar gets underway at 0600GMT, with the release of the German

preliminary Q2 GDP data and the final July HICP data.

     Following the release of disappointing Eurozone-wide numbers, market

attention is focused firmly on Tuesday's release of preliminary Q2 GDP data from

Germany, as concerns mount over whether the bloc is heading for a less-than-soft

landing. The IMF underscored these concerns in a recent report, noting that

while growth in the Eurozone remains solid and broad-based, risks to the outlook

-- stemming from both domestic and global factors -- are "particularly serious,"

and have the potential to tip the economy into a hard landing.

     Germany is the largest economy in the Eurozone, accounting for almost 30%

of the region's total output. On a quarterly basis, German growth halved in the

first quarter to 0.3%, leaving the annual growth rate at 2.3% (down from 2.9% in

Q4). Median estimates for Q2 point to a slight pick-up in quarterly growth to

0.4%, with the annual rate expected to ease further owing to base effects.

     At 0645GMT, German final July GDP will be published, followed by the

Spanish final inflation data at 0700GMT.

     The main UK release comes at 0830GMT, with the publication of the latest

Labour Market Survey.

     In the last sixteen years, analysts have tended to slightly overestimate

unemployment for the month of June, by an average of 0.02 pp over this period.

Moreover, four out of the six overestimates since 2002 have come in the last

five years, suggesting that the tendency to overestimate June unemployment has

become more prevalent recently. Analysts see unemployment dropping to a 43-year

low of 4.1%, down from 4.2% in May.

     There is a slew of European data expected at 0900GMT, including the release

of the August ZEW Survey.

     Concerns over the Eurozone growth outlook have been gathering steam in

recent weeks, following a spate of disappointing data. Tuesday's release of the

August ZEW survey for Germany -- the bloc's largest economy -- will help to add

some colour as to whether the recent softness is likely to persist. The monthly

survey polls around 300 German institutional investors on their views of current

national and international economic conditions, as well as their sentiments

regarding the coming six months. In July, the 'Current Situation' (CS) index

fell back for a sixth consecutive month, while the 'Economic Sentiment' (ES)

index dropped to a near six-year low of -24.7 -- well below its historical

average of 23.2. The median consensus projections for August point to a

0.3-point decline in the CS index and a 3.5-point rise in the ES Index.

     At the same time, Eurozone preliminary GDP data and the June industrial

production data are due.

     Over the past eight years analysts have overestimated Q2 euro area GDP on

five occasions, calling it correctly twice. On average, when a negative data

surprise has been delivered (when analysts have overestimated growth), the

average miss has been 0.18 percentage points. Since 2013, however, analysts have

been both more conservative and more accurate. All three positive data surprises

have come during this time, including last year, with an average miss of 0.17pp.

This year, analysts look for growth of 0.3% q/q in Q2, down 0.1pp from Q1 and

unchanged from the preliminary flash estimate published on July 31.

     The US calendar gets underway at 1000GMT, although data is largely second

tier. The first release is the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, followed by

the import/export price index at 1230GMT.

     At 1255GMT, the latest Redbook Retail Sales Index will be published.

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com