Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
The coming week’s focus will largely be US CPI due on Thursday, putting the Fed, BOE and RBA meetings firmly in the rear-view mirror.
Monday
Germany Industrial Production: Following Friday’s robust September factory orders, German industrial production could see an upside surprise to the forecasted +0.2% m/m and +2.1% y/y prints. After a contraction in August, consumer goods orders remained buoyant in September. Consequently, consumer goods could again boost Germany's GDP into Q4 as the economy teeters on the edge of a recession.
Eurozone industrial production is due one week later and likely to remain modestly expansive.
US Consumer Credit: US consumer credit is seen increasing $32bln in September. Consumer credit outstanding reached a record high in August. Despite higher interest rates pushing up the costs of borrowing, consumer credit continues to grow. This considering the downward trend in personal savings rates (3.1% of disposable income in Sep versus 4.5% in Feb) signals that high borrowing now could be at the expense of future disposable income.
Tuesday
Eurozone Retail Trade: Euro area aggregate retail trade is presumed to have remained weak in September despite more robust consumer spending. A modest +0.5% m/m improvement is expected (versus -0.3% in Aug), yet nevertheless contracting by -1.1% y/y.
US IBD/TIPP Optimism & NFIB Small Business Optimism Index: The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (an advance consumer confidence indicator) is projected to remain around October levels in the November data, implying continued pessimism for 15 consecutive months. Of note will be any major movements in the assessment of recession and inflation outlooks.
Small business optimism is likely to remain around 92 in October, following recent improvements in business outlooks. Employment and investment plans will act as early signal of slowing into year-end.
Thursday
Italy Industrial Production: Following German, French and Spanish IP, Italian industrial production is set to weaken by -1.5% m/m in September. High energy prices continue to hamper production, narrowing profit margins.
US CPI: US headline CPI is forecast to edge down for the fourth consecutive month, moderating by 0.2pp to +8.0% y/y. Despite headline inflation easing, US inflation still shows little sign of retreating. Prices are projected to accelerate by +0.7% m/m and core CPI is set to hold steady at a 40-year high of +6.6% y/y.
On Wednesday the FOMC was focused on December’s meeting decisions rather than the inevitable 75bp hike delivered. What was unanticipated was the huge focus on the Committee’s evolving views on the terminal rate in December’s Dot Plot update, as opposed to the market’s focus on whether the Fed would hike 50bp vs 75bp at that meeting. (See the MNI Fed review here.)
Friday
Germany CPI (F): Germany’s final CPI print will likely confirm an alarming +1.1% m/m and +11.6% y/y jump in the harmonised print as energy and food prices drove a marked upside beat.
UK GDP / Index of Services / IP / Trade: The UK economy is seen shrinking by -0.4% q/q in the Q3 flash data, following the modest +0.2% q/q expansion of Q2. This is broadly in line with the Bank of England’s projections, delivered on Thursday alongside a 75bp hike. The Energy Price Guarantee will provide support to growth, although slowing spending due to still high energy prices and tight financial conditions will outweigh, underpinning projections of falling GDP from H2 2022 through to Q1 2024. (See the MNI BOE review here.)
The September round of data will likely see another contraction across industrial production and services as the cost-of-living bites into consumer spending. CPI and labour market data is due the week following, alongside the Autumn statement. These releases will influence the December meeting, as the BOE again weighs up further hikes, although they will see an additional month’s data in the days before the next gathering.
US Michigan Sentiment Index (P): The US Michigan Sentiment Index concludes the week in data. The prelim November release forecast sees sentiment edging down by 0.3 points to 59.6. Despite being an improvement from the June low of 50.0, the index remains severely depressed.
All eyes will again be on the inflation expectations. October’s 1Y ahead inflation was seen at 5.0%, up from 4.7% in Sep but still below highs of 5.4% in the spring.
Source: MNI / BBG
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 07/11/2022 | 0645/0745 | ** |  | CH | Unemployment |
| 07/11/2022 | 0700/0800 | ** |  | DE | Industrial Production |
| 07/11/2022 | 0700/0700 | * |  | UK | Halifax House Price Index |
| 07/11/2022 | 0730/0730 | | UK | DMO Announces Second H2-Nov Linker Synd | |
| 07/11/2022 | 0830/0930 | ** |  | EU | IHS Markit Final Eurozone Construction PMI |
| 07/11/2022 | 0830/0930 | | DE | S&P Global Germany Construction PMI | |
| 07/11/2022 | 0840/0940 | | EU | ECB Lagarde Video Message for EC/ECB Conference | |
| 07/11/2022 | 0930/1030 | * | | EU | Sentix Economic Index |
| 07/11/2022 | 0930/1030 | | EU | ECB Panetta Panels EC/ECB Conference | |
| 07/11/2022 | - | | EU | COP 27 Begins | |
| 07/11/2022 | - | *** |  | CN | Trade |
| 07/11/2022 | - | | EU | ECB Panetta at Eurogroup meeting | |
| 07/11/2022 | 1630/1130 | * |  | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 07/11/2022 | 1630/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 07/11/2022 | 2000/1500 | * | | US | Consumer Credit |
| 07/11/2022 | 2040/1540 | | US | Fed's Loretta Mester and Susan Collins | |
| 07/11/2022 | 2300/1800 | | US | Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin | |
| 08/11/2022 | 0001/0001 | * | | UK | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor |
| 08/11/2022 | 0745/0845 | * |  | FR | Foreign Trade |
| 08/11/2022 | 0745/0845 | * | | FR | Current Account |
| 08/11/2022 | 0900/1000 |  | IT | Retail Sales | |
| 08/11/2022 | 0900/0900 | | UK | BOE Pill Panels UBS European Conference | |
| 08/11/2022 | 1000/1100 | ** | | EU | retail sales |
| 08/11/2022 | 1000/1000 | ** | | UK | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 08/11/2022 | 1100/0600 | ** | | US | NFIB Small Business Optimism Index |
| 08/11/2022 | - | | US | Legislative Elections / Midterms | |
| 08/11/2022 | - | | EU | ECB de Guindos at ECOFIN meeting | |
| 08/11/2022 | 1355/0855 | ** | | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 08/11/2022 | 1500/1000 | ** | | US | IBD/TIPP Optimism Index |
| 08/11/2022 | 1800/1300 | *** | | US | US Note 03 Year Treasury Auction Result |
| 09/11/2022 | 0130/0930 | *** | | CN | CPI |
| 09/11/2022 | 0130/0930 | *** | | CN | Producer Price Index |
| 09/11/2022 | 0700/0800 | ** |  | SE | Private Sector Production |
| 09/11/2022 | 0800/0300 | | US | New York Fed's John Williams | |
| 09/11/2022 | 1000/1100 | | EU | ECB Elderson Panels EMEA Event at COP27 | |
| 09/11/2022 | 1200/0700 | ** | | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 09/11/2022 | 1300/1300 | | UK | BOE Haskel Speech at Digital Futures at Work | |
| 09/11/2022 | 1500/1000 | ** | | US | Wholesale Trade |
| 09/11/2022 | 1530/1030 | ** | | US | DOE weekly crude oil stocks |
| 09/11/2022 | 1600/1100 | | US | Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin | |
| 09/11/2022 | 1700/1200 | *** | | US | USDA Crop Estimates - WASDE |
| 09/11/2022 | 1800/1300 | ** | | US | US Note 10 Year Treasury Auction Result |
| 10/11/2022 | 0001/0001 | * | | UK | RICS House Prices |
| 10/11/2022 | 0130/0130 | | UK | BOE Ramsden Panels PIIE & LKY Conference | |
| 10/11/2022 | 0700/0200 | | US | Fed Governor Christopher Waller | |
| 10/11/2022 | 0700/0800 | * |  | NO | CPI Norway |
| 10/11/2022 | 0900/1000 | * | | IT | Industrial Production |
| 10/11/2022 | 1000/1000 | ** | | UK | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 10/11/2022 | - | | UK | House of Commons Recess Starts | |
| 10/11/2022 | 1300/1400 | | EU | ECB Schnabel Discussion at at Bank of Slovenia | |
| 10/11/2022 | 1310/1310 | | UK | BOE Tenreyro Speech at Society of Professional Economists | |
| 10/11/2022 | 1330/0830 | ** | | US | Jobless Claims |
| 10/11/2022 | 1330/0830 | *** | | US | CPI |
| 10/11/2022 | 1330/0830 | ** | | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 10/11/2022 | 1400/0900 | | US | Philadelphia Fed's Patrick Harker | |
| 10/11/2022 | 1435/0935 | | US | Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan | |
| 10/11/2022 | 1530/1030 | ** | | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 10/11/2022 | 1650/1150 |  | CA | BOC Gov Macklem speech, "The evolution of Canadian labour markets" | |
| 10/11/2022 | 1730/1230 | | US | Fed Governor Loretta Mester | |
| 10/11/2022 | 1800/1300 | *** | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 30 Year Bond |
| 10/11/2022 | 1900/1400 | ** | | US | Treasury Budget |
| 10/11/2022 | 1900/1400 | *** |  | MX | Mexico Interest Rate |
| 11/11/2022 | 0700/0700 | *** | | UK | GDP First Estimate |
| 11/11/2022 | 0700/0700 | ** | | UK | UK Monthly GDP |
| 11/11/2022 | 0700/0700 | ** | | UK | Output in the Construction Industry |
| 11/11/2022 | 0700/0700 | ** | | UK | Trade Balance |
| 11/11/2022 | 0700/0700 | *** | | UK | Index of Production |
| 11/11/2022 | 0700/0700 | ** | | UK | Index of Services |
| 11/11/2022 | 0700/0800 | *** | | DE | HICP (f) |
| 11/11/2022 | 1200/1300 | | EU | ECB Panetta Speaks at ISPI | |
| 11/11/2022 | 1200/1300 | | EU | ECB de Guindos Q&A at Encuentro de Economia en S'Agaro | |
| 11/11/2022 | 1500/1000 | *** | | US | University of Michigan Sentiment Index (p) |
| 11/11/2022 | 1600/1700 | | EU | ECB Lane Panels Jacques Polak Conference |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.