MNI Global Week Ahead April 26 – 30

Key Things to Watch:

• Tuesday, April 27 – Bank of Japan Policy Decision
• The Bank of Japan will slightly revise up the median forecast for real economic growth this fiscal year from the 3.9% forecast in January, buoyed by the global economy and fiscal stimulus, although the continuing global semiconductor shortage will be a drag.
• The BOJ board will likely stand pat on monetary policy at its 2-day policy-setting meeting ending on April 27 as it releases the medium-term economic growth and inflation rate forecast until fiscal 2023.
• Bank officials will judge that downward pressure on the economy has eased somewhat since March, as weakness in the face-to-face service sector has spread to other areas.

• Wednesday, April 28 - FOMC Policy Meeting
  • No change is expected to fed funds rate target of 0% to 0.25% or USD120 billion per month in asset purchases
  • Chair Jay Powell is expected to reaffirm the FOMC's commitment to stay the course on maximum accommodation for the U.S. economy as the recovery takes hold, even as he acknowledges a more upbeat outlook and encouraging data
• Some analysts look for a small hike to the interest on excess reserves and overnight reverse repo rates, but the Fed has signaled it would take a patience stance on tweaking its administered rates

• Thursday, April 29 – U.S. Q1 GDP (First Estimate)
  • U.S. Q1 GDP is set to grow at an annual rate of 6.5%, according to Bloomberg, up from the annualized 4.3% pace set in the final quarter of 2020.
  • That should mostly reflect consumer spending driven by additional government aid and job growth, though severe winter storms in February could put some downward pressure on growth. Imports were particularly strong through Q1, while exports continued to struggle due to global demand and supply chain constraints.