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MNI Global Week Ahead August 2 – 6

MNI (Washington)

Key Things to Watch:

  • Thursday, August 5 – Bank of England Policy Decision
    • The Bank of England's August policy decision can certainly be viewed as 'live', although likely to end with policy unchanged. However, despite recent dissenter Andy Haldane now departed, there is a better than even chance that two current MPC members - Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden and external member Michael Saunders - could vote for an early end to the current QE program, presently set to end in November.
    • However, outgoing MPC member Gertjan Vlieghe and Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent, often seen as the fulcrum for the Bank's internal view, have pushed back against early tightening talk in recent days and it seems likely that the MPC will vote to maintain rates at 0.1% and to continue the current QE program that will take the combined stock to GBP 895 billion by year end.
    • Many Bank watchers will be eyeing statements from Threadneedle Street for any signs of progress on the future tightening possibilities, particularly the sequencing of rates and bond sales.

  • Tuesday, August 3 – U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index
    • U.S. manufacturing activity held steady through July, with Bloomberg forecasting a slight increase in the monthly ISM Manufacturing Index to 60.7 from 60.6 in June.
    • That should reflect increases in manufacturing employment and production, analysts say, though those gains will be at least partially offset by a worsening supplier deliveries index reading as supply chain disruptions continue.

  • Friday, August 6 – U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls
    • U.S. job growth likely spiked again in July, with employers adding up to 900,000 jobs, according to Bloomberg estimates, after adding 850,000 in June.
    • Higher wages and more aggressive recruiting could have sped up job growth in the service sector, analysts say, and OpenTable data through the month signaled a recovery in restaurant reservations.
    • Private payrolls should increase 808,000 after a smaller 662,000 gain in June, according to Bloomberg. The unemployment rate is expected to sink to 5.7% from 5.9%.

MNI Washington Bureau | +1 202-371-2121 |
MNI Washington Bureau | +1 202-371-2121 |

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