MNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD: BOC Decision & US GDP Take Centre Stage

MONDAY

Eurozone Flash Consumer Confidence: The eurozone January flash consumer confidence index is anticipated to improve to around -20.2, up 2.2 points on December. This would signal a fourth consecutive month of improvements after having collapsed to a record low of -28.7 in September 2022. The indicator remains, however, severely depressed.

US Leading Index: The US leading index is projected to weaken by -0.7% in December, after -1.0% in November.

TUESDAY

Germany GfK Consumer Confidence: German consumer sentiment is likely to see another improvement in the February forward-looking index, forecasted to increase just under four points to about -33.0. This remains historically weak. Government energy bill support will offer some relief in confidence levels.

January Flash PMIs: Eurozone PMIs are expected to see minor upticks across the board from 0.1-0.9 points in the January flash data. This implies all remaining marginally below the breakeven mark of 50.0, whilst the eurozone services aggregate is expected to become again marginally expansive at 50.2. The December PMIs, albeit improved, remained in contractive territory, extending the downturn into the sixth consecutive month and signalling a GDP contraction of just under -0.2% q/q for the bloc. Business sentiment has improved but remains weak on the back of high inflation and rising interest rates.

For UK PMIs the outlooks are more clouded. Manufacturing should improve by 0.6 points to 45.9, remaining a few points below eurozone levels. Services is expected to weaken by 0.3 points to 49.6.

US S&P Global PMIs also remain a few points weaker than the eurozone. Manufacturing and services are seen up 0.3 and 1.3 points respectively, leaving them at 46.5 and 46.0 still firmly in contractive territory. New Orders plunged by the fastest rate in two-and-a-half years in December and will likely fall further in January. Job creation will be another key metric in the release after stalling in December.

WEDNESDAY

Germany IFO: Following a record jump in ZEW survey forward-looking expectations, further improvements are pencilled in for the IFO survey. The headline and expectations indexes are both seen up 1.6 and 1.8 points to 90.2 and 85.0. Growth outlooks remain weak but are improving. IFO’s latest quarterly survey flagged more German firms reported greater difficulty obtaining bank lending in December than in previous months, as lenders raise rates and show more reluctance extending loans.

Canada Interest Rate Decision: A 25bp hike is largely anticipated for the first BOC meeting of the year as they slow the pace in line with that expected at the upcoming Fed decision. This eighth consecutive hike would bring the policy rate to 4.50%, with both the market and analysts expecting it to top out here. However, a recent sizeable easing in financial conditions could see moderately hawkish language along with the quarterly Monetary Policy Report to prevent further easing.

THURSDAY

Italy Business/Consumer Sentiment: Italian consumer confidence is likely to hold steady at 102.5, whilst manufacturing inches up around 0.3 points to 101.7 in the January data.

US Q4 GDP / Durable Goods Orders: US GDP is forecasted to see another strong expansion in the advance data, expected at +2.6% q/q after +3.2% q/q in Q3. The strong end to 2022 follows a technical recession of negative growth in H1. Forecasts remain varied, after weak IP and retail data signalled a muted end to the quarter. A strong headline print will largely be buoyed by strong net trade and inventories, masking underlying economic weakness.

Durable goods orders are also due, expected to bounce back to +2.9% m/m after falling -2.1% m/m in November. Yet excluding transportation, durables are likely to be substantially weaker. A -0.2% m/m contraction is pencilled in after all but stalling at +0.1% m/m in November.

FRIDAY

France Consumer Sentiment: Another one-point uptick to 83 is expected in French consumer sentiment for January, concluding the January round of eurozone sentiment data.

Spain Flash GDP: Spanish flash Q4 GDP kicks off the round of major eurozone prints. Growth is expected to be a marginal +0.1% q/q, unchanged from Q3. France, Germany, Italy and the Eurozone aggregate are all due the following Tuesday (Jan 31) whereby robust domestic demand has signalled a shallower recession than initially foreseen.

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Flag	Country	Event
23/01/2023	1430/1530			EU	ECB Panetta Into at ECON Hearing
23/01/2023	1500/1000	**		US	leading indicators
23/01/2023	1500/1600	**		EU	Consumer Confidence Indicator (p)
23/01/2023	1630/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
23/01/2023	1630/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
23/01/2023	1745/1845			EU	ECB Lagarde Speech at Deutsche Boerse
24/01/2023	2200/0900	***		AU	IHS Markit Flash Australia PMI
24/01/2023	0030/0930	**		JP	IHS Markit Flash Japan PMI
24/01/2023	0700/0800	*		DE	GFK Consumer Climate
24/01/2023	0700/0700	***		UK	Public Sector Finances
24/01/2023	0745/0845	**		FR	Manufacturing Sentiment
24/01/2023	0815/0915	**		FR	IHS Markit Services PMI (p)
24/01/2023	0815/0915	**		FR	IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (p)
24/01/2023	0830/0930	**		DE	IHS Markit Services PMI (p)
24/01/2023	0830/0930	**		DE	IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (p)
24/01/2023	0900/1000	**		EU	IHS Markit Services PMI (p)
24/01/2023	0900/1000	**		EU	IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (p)
24/01/2023	0900/1000	**		EU	IHS Markit Composite PMI (p)
24/01/2023	0930/0930	***		UK	IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (flash)
24/01/2023	0930/0930	***		UK	IHS Markit Services PMI (flash)
24/01/2023	0930/0930	***		UK	IHS Markit Composite PMI (flash)
24/01/2023	0945/1045			EU	ECB Lagarde Video Message at Croatia Conference
24/01/2023	1100/1100	**		UK	CBI Industrial Trends
24/01/2023	1330/0830	**		US	Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index
24/01/2023	1355/0855	**		US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
24/01/2023	1445/0945	***		US	IHS Markit Manufacturing Index (flash)
24/01/2023	1445/0945	***		US	IHS Markit Services Index (flash)
24/01/2023	1500/1000	**		US	Richmond Fed Survey
24/01/2023	1630/1130	**		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 52 Week Bill
24/01/2023	1800/1300	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Note
25/01/2023	0030/1130	***		AU	CPI inflation
25/01/2023	0700/0700	***		UK	Producer Prices
25/01/2023	0700/0800	**		SE	PPI
25/01/2023	0700/1500	**		CN	MNI China Liquidity Suvey
25/01/2023	0800/0900	**		ES	PPI
25/01/2023	0900/1000	***		DE	IFO Business Climate Index
25/01/2023	1200/0700	**		US	MBA Weekly Applications Index
25/01/2023	1400/1500	**		BE	BNB Business Sentiment
25/01/2023	1500/1000	***		CA	Bank of Canada Policy Decision
25/01/2023	1500/1000			CA	Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report
25/01/2023	1530/1030	**		US	DOE weekly crude oil stocks
25/01/2023	1600/1100			CA	Bank of Canada Governor press conference
25/01/2023	1630/1130	**		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Floating Rate Note
25/01/2023	1800/1300	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 5 Year Note
26/01/2023	0800/0900	**		SE	Economic Tendency Indicator
26/01/2023	0900/1000	**		IT	ISTAT Business Confidence
26/01/2023	0900/1000	**		IT	ISTAT Consumer Confidence
26/01/2023	1100/1100	**		UK	CBI Distributive Trades
26/01/2023	1330/0830	*		CA	Payroll employment
26/01/2023	1330/0830	**		US	Jobless Claims
26/01/2023	1330/0830	**		US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
26/01/2023	1330/0830	**		US	durable goods new orders
26/01/2023	1330/0830	***		US	GDP (adv)
26/01/2023	1330/0830	**		US	Advance Trade, Advance Business Inventories
26/01/2023	1500/1000	***		US	New Home Sales
26/01/2023	1530/1030	**		US	Natural Gas Stocks
26/01/2023	1600/1100	**		US	Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
26/01/2023	1800/1300	**		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 7 Year Note
27/01/2023	0030/1130	**		AU	Trade price indexes
27/01/2023	0700/0800	**		SE	Unemployment
27/01/2023	0700/0800	**		SE	Retail Sales
27/01/2023	0745/0845	**		FR	Consumer Sentiment
27/01/2023	0800/0900	***		ES	GDP (p)
27/01/2023	0900/1000	**		EU	M3
27/01/2023	1330/0830	**		US	Personal Income and Consumption
27/01/2023	1500/1000	**		US	NAR pending home sales
27/01/2023	1500/1000	***		US	Final Michigan Sentiment Index
27/01/2023	1600/1100			CA	Finance Dept monthly Fiscal Monitor (expected)