Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Developed Markets
WEDNESDAY - Bank of Canada Decision
A 25bps cut - the first in the cycle - is the base case for Wednesday's Bank of Canada decision. Softer-than-expected underlying inflation metrics and a below-projection growth profile should provide sufficient justification for the board to act this month, despite having no accompanying monetary policy report at this meeting. A comms strategy oriented around gradualism should accompany any rate cut, with the Bank seen stressing that a sharp pace of cuts is unlikely - although firmer forward guidance on policy is unlikely. This leaves markets pricing 2 full 25bps cuts by year-end, a pace that's expected to persist into 2025 until the benchmark rate reaches ~3.00%.
THURSDAY - ECB Decision
The ECB are unanimously expected to deliver a 25bp rate cut at its meeting on Thursday. A June cut has been so well-telegraphed by the ECB that failing to deliver would result in significant loss of credibility. However, uncertainties over inflation persistence, the geopolitical backdrop, and the outlook for global monetary policy (principally the Fed) suggest that the June decision will be no more than an insurance cut at this stage with no new policy signals. The updated macroeconomic projections will also garner interest, with small upward revisions to GDP and inflation expected. The May flash inflation data saw core inflation surprise 0.2pp to the upside at 2.9% Y/Y and services inflation print back above the 4,0% Y/Y handle. This data will likely underscore the ECB's preference for caution beyond June. Executive Board member Schnabel has recently noted that a July cut seems unlikely at this stage, a view supported by the MNI Policy Team's recent sources piece. On Friday, we also receive the final Q1 national accounts, which includes details of the GDP deflator and its components. Unit labour costs are expected to remain elevated in Q1 (partly a function of still-weak productivity growth), though a coincident softening in unit profits should help the GDP deflator moderate overall.
FRIDAY - US Nonfarm Payrolls
The US employment report for May (Friday, 0830ET) is tentatively expected to show a moderate rebound in job gains to 180k versus April's surprisingly weak figure of 175k (vs 240k expected, and accompanied by downward revisions to prior months). This outcome would be seen as reinforcing the view that the labor market has shifted into a softer (Q1 average = 270k, 2023 average = 250k) but still-solid phase. Other key statistics in the report are seen remaining relatively steady, including the unemployment rate (April: 3.9%, or 3.86% unrounded), with average hourly earnings ticking up to 0.3% M/M (April: 0.20% M/M unrounded). Alongside the May inflation report on June 12, this will be one of the last two major economic data points considered by Federal Reserve policymakers ahead of their June rate decision and new economic projections.
Emerging Markets
WEDNESDAY - NBP Decision
All analysts expect the NBP (Wed) to keep interest rates unchanged at 5.75% amid its well-telegraphed stabilisation of monetary policy parameters. The preliminary reading of May headline CPI came in below expectations, and while a positive development, the NBP continue to outline a number of risks to the inflation outlook, with particular concern over the robust pace of real wage growth. NBP officials appear resolute that the conditions for rate cuts appear unlikely to be met until 2025.
FRIDAY - RBI Decision
The RBI is widely expected to remain on hold at next week's policy meeting. None of the economists surveyed by Bloomberg see a policy shift. There doesn't appear to be any need to shift in a dovish direction from a growth standpoint. Partial indicators are holding up strongly. Inflation pressures remain broadly unchanged in recent months as well.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 03/06/2024 | 2300/0900 | ** |  | AU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 03/06/2024 | 0030/0930 | ** |  | JP | S&P Global Final Japan Manufacturing PMI |
| 03/06/2024 | 0145/0945 | ** |  | CN | S&P Global Final China Manufacturing PMI |
| 03/06/2024 | 0700/0300 | * |  | TR | Turkey CPI |
| 03/06/2024 | 0715/0915 | ** |  | ES | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 03/06/2024 | 0745/0945 | ** |  | IT | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 03/06/2024 | 0750/0950 | ** |  | FR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 03/06/2024 | 0755/0955 | ** |  | DE | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 03/06/2024 | 0800/1000 | ** |  | EU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 03/06/2024 | 0830/0930 | ** |  | UK | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final) |
| 03/06/2024 | - | *** |  | US | Domestic-Made Vehicle Sales |
| 03/06/2024 | 1345/0945 | *** | | US | S&P Global Manufacturing Index (final) |
| 03/06/2024 | 1400/1000 | *** | | US | ISM Manufacturing Index |
| 03/06/2024 | 1400/1000 | * | | US | Construction Spending |
| 03/06/2024 | 1530/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 03/06/2024 | 1530/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 04/06/2024 | 2301/0001 | * | | UK | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor |
| 04/06/2024 | 0130/1130 | | AU | Business Indicators | |
| 04/06/2024 | 0130/1130 | | AU | Balance of Payments: Current Account | |
| 04/06/2024 | 0630/0830 | *** |  | CH | CPI |
| 04/06/2024 | 0755/0955 | ** | | DE | Unemployment |
| 04/06/2024 | 0900/1000 | ** | | UK | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 04/06/2024 | 1255/0855 | ** | | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 04/06/2024 | 1400/1000 | ** | | US | Factory New Orders |
| 04/06/2024 | 1400/1000 | *** | | US | JOLTS jobs opening level |
| 04/06/2024 | 1400/1000 | *** | | US | JOLTS quits Rate |
| 04/06/2024 | 1530/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill |
| 05/06/2024 | 0130/1130 | *** | | AU | Quarterly GDP |
| 05/06/2024 | 0645/0845 | * | | FR | Industrial Production |
| 05/06/2024 | 0900/1100 | ** | | EU | PPI |
| 05/06/2024 | 0900/1000 | ** | | UK | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 05/06/2024 | 1100/0700 | ** | | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 05/06/2024 | 1215/0815 | *** | | US | ADP Employment Report |
| 05/06/2024 | 1345/0945 | *** |  | CA | Bank of Canada Policy Decision |
| 05/06/2024 | 1400/1000 | *** | | US | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index |
| 05/06/2024 | 1430/1030 | ** | | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 05/06/2024 | 1430/1030 | | CA | BOC Governor Press Conference | |
| 06/06/2024 | 0130/1130 | ** | | AU | Trade Balance |
| 06/06/2024 | 0130/1130 | ** | | AU | Lending Finance Details |
| 06/06/2024 | 0545/0745 | ** | | CH | Unemployment |
| 06/06/2024 | 0600/0800 | ** | | DE | Manufacturing Orders |
| 06/06/2024 | 0700/0900 | ** | | ES | Industrial Production |
| 06/06/2024 | 0730/0930 | ** | | EU | S&P Global Final Eurozone Construction PMI |
| 06/06/2024 | 0800/1000 | * | | IT | Retail Sales |
| 06/06/2024 | 0830/0930 | ** | | UK | S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI |
| 06/06/2024 | 0830/0930 | | UK | BOE's Decision Maker Panel Data | |
| 06/06/2024 | 0900/1100 | ** | | EU | Retail Sales |
| 06/06/2024 | 1215/1415 | *** | | EU | ECB Deposit Rate |
| 06/06/2024 | 1215/1415 | *** | | EU | ECB Main Refi Rate |
| 06/06/2024 | 1215/1415 | *** | | EU | ECB Marginal Lending Rate |
| 06/06/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | | US | Jobless Claims |
| 06/06/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 06/06/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | Trade Balance |
| 06/06/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | Non-Farm Productivity (f) |
| 06/06/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | | CA | International Merchandise Trade (Trade Balance) |
| 06/06/2024 | 1245/1445 | | EU | ECB Monetary Policy Press Conference | |
| 06/06/2024 | 1400/1000 | * | | CA | Ivey PMI |
| 06/06/2024 | 1415/1615 | | EU | ECB's Lagarde presents monpol decision on podcast | |
| 06/06/2024 | 1430/1030 | ** | | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 07/06/2024 | 0600/0800 | ** | | DE | Trade Balance |
| 07/06/2024 | 0600/0800 | ** | | DE | Industrial Production |
| 07/06/2024 | 0645/0845 | * | | FR | Foreign Trade |
| 07/06/2024 | 0800/1000 | | EU | ECB's Schnabel participates in panel discussion at the Federal Ministry of Finance | |
| 07/06/2024 | 0900/1100 | *** | | EU | GDP (final) |
| 07/06/2024 | 0900/1100 | * | | EU | Employment |
| 07/06/2024 | - | *** | | CN | Trade |
| 07/06/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | | US | Employment Report |
| 07/06/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | | CA | Labour Force Survey |
| 07/06/2024 | 1400/1000 | ** | | US | Wholesale Trade |
| 07/06/2024 | 1415/1615 | | EU | ECB's Lagarde in Atelier Maurice Allais | |
| 07/06/2024 | 1700/1300 | ** | | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
| 07/06/2024 | 1900/1500 | * | | US | Consumer Credit |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.