MNI BRIEF: BOI Sees "Modest" Q2 EZ Growth Driven By Services

MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, July 12

MNI BRIEF: China June M2 SlowsTo Record Low For Third Month

MNI BRIEF: China Steel Export Growth Slows In June

MNI: PBOC Conducts CNY2 Bln Via OMO Fri; Liquidity Unchanged

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY2 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS FRI

MNI: BAKER HUGHES US RIG COUNT 584; OIL RIGS 478; GAS RIGS 100

MNI: USDA: 2024/2025 CORN PRODUCTION EST 15.10B BSL

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: Germany, Netherlands, France Due Monday

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

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MNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD - ECB, BOC and US NFP

The week ahead is headlined by the BoC and ECB meetings, alongside the US NFP report on Friday.

Developed Markets

WEDNESDAY - Bank of Canada Decision

A 25bps cut - the first in the cycle - is the base case for Wednesday's Bank of Canada decision. Softer-than-expected underlying inflation metrics and a below-projection growth profile should provide sufficient justification for the board to act this month, despite having no accompanying monetary policy report at this meeting. A comms strategy oriented around gradualism should accompany any rate cut, with the Bank seen stressing that a sharp pace of cuts is unlikely - although firmer forward guidance on policy is unlikely. This leaves markets pricing 2 full 25bps cuts by year-end, a pace that's expected to persist into 2025 until the benchmark rate reaches ~3.00%.

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Developed Markets

WEDNESDAY - Bank of Canada Decision

A 25bps cut - the first in the cycle - is the base case for Wednesday's Bank of Canada decision. Softer-than-expected underlying inflation metrics and a below-projection growth profile should provide sufficient justification for the board to act this month, despite having no accompanying monetary policy report at this meeting. A comms strategy oriented around gradualism should accompany any rate cut, with the Bank seen stressing that a sharp pace of cuts is unlikely - although firmer forward guidance on policy is unlikely. This leaves markets pricing 2 full 25bps cuts by year-end, a pace that's expected to persist into 2025 until the benchmark rate reaches ~3.00%.

Keep reading...Show less