MNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD: Eurozone Flash CPIs in Focus

MONDAY

Germany Ifo Survey: The March German Ifo survey is expected to hold steady around last month’s level of 91.1, whilst cooling by 0.7-points to 87.8 in the outlook indicator. Financial market volatility over the last weeks will likely be the key driver of cooling expectations. The Ifo Spring Economic Forecast expects a Q1 -0.2% q/q contraction as the economy continues to face headwinds of persistently high inflation and rising borrowing costs.

TUESDAY

France Manufacturing Sentiment: French manufacturing confidence is forecasted to edge down by one point to 103 in March, foreshadowed by the flash March PMI report which saw manufacturers’ one-year outlooks turn pessimistic for the first time since November.

Italy Consumer / Manufacturing Sentiment: March Italian manufacturing and consumer sentiment is seen steady at 102.8 and 104.0 respectively.

US Consumer Sentiment: US Conference Board consumer confidence will likely cool for a third month in March, with a 1.4-point move back to 101.5 pencilled in by consensus. Pessimistic forward-looking outlooks accounted for a weak February print, with the Expectations index signalling recession. Inventories data for February is also due.

WEDNESDAY

Germany Consumer Sentiment: German consumer confidence is projected to edge up by half a point to -30.0 in the GfK’s forward-looking April index. This would be a sixth month of improving sentiment. The indicator still remains deeply pessimistic. Government energy support has largely underpinned upticks in sentiment, yet with little effect on the propensity to buy subindex thus far, this is yet to translate into stronger spending.

MNI China Liquidity Index: The MNI March China Liquidity Survey is due Wednesday, after the February report suggested the PBOC act to keep financial conditions in China’s interbank market loose.

France Consumer Sentiment: French consumer confidence is expected to worsen in March by two points to the 2022 low of 80. Substantial strike action and civil unrest this month will likely drive the decline.

BOE Financial Stability Report: The Bank of England FPC’s biannual Financial Stability Report will provide insight into where the committee sees the stability of the UK financial system amidst recent market volatility, likely to reiterate continued robustness as alluded to at Thursday’s MPC rate decision.

THRUSDAY

Spain Flash HICP: Spain will kick off this month’s round of flash euro inflation data. Base-effects should see HICP cool by 1.8pp to +4.2% y/y, yet the +2.2% m/m jump currently expected by consensus highlights that short-term price pressures remain acute.

Eurozone Economic Sentiment: Eurozone consumer confidence was broadly unchanged in the March flash, inching down by -0.1 points. Albeit only minimal, if confirmed on Thursday this decline would break a five-month streak of improving sentiment for the bloc. Thursday’s release will give insight on consumer purchasing intentions for March, as well as overall economic confidence, which is projected to tick up by a marginal 0.1 point. Eurozone flash PMI data for March signalled a robust rebound in services activity, whilst manufacturing largely stalled.

Germany Flash HICP: After the usual slew of morning state data, German harmonised inflation is projected to rise by +0.8% m/m, whilst cooling by 1.7pp to +7.6% y/y. Keep an eye out for the MNI forecast following the morning regional data.

US GDP: The third US Q4 GDP estimate is seen confirming +2.7% q/q annualised.

FRIDAY

UK GDP Second Estimate: The final Q4 2022 GDP estimate will likely confirm a flat quarter for the UK.

Germany Retail Sales: A +0.5% m/m uptick in retail sales is anticipated for Germany in February, after the January contraction. Despite improvements in German consumer confidence, spending appetite remains subdued.

France Flash HICP: French harmonised inflation is expected to ease by 0.8pp to +6.5% y/y after the euro-era high recorded in February. Prices will likely continue to advance by +1.0% m/m on the month.

Germany Unemployment: The German labour market data for March is set to continue to reflect tight conditions, with the unemployment rate unchanged at 5.5%.

Italy Flash HICP: A +1.4% m/m acceleration in Italian harmonised inflation is eyed by consensus for March, with the headline print to soften by 1.0pp to +8.8% y/y.

Eurozone Flash HICP: Eurozone flash March HICP is forecasted to rise +1.2% m/m, whilst cooling by 1.3pp to +7.2% y/y, largely due to base effects of falling energy prices. Core CPI is likely to edge up again from the euro-era high of +5.6% y/y recorded in February. Flash PMI data largely alluded to cooling price pressures, yet the strong service activity boost continues to underline service-inflation troubles, underpinning hawkish ECB rhetoric.

US Personal Consumption / MNI Chicago Report: February data is expected to reflect a mild month for US personal income and spending, easing to +0.3% m/m growth for both measures in current forecasts.

The March Chicago PMI, produced by MNI, follows six consecutive months of contractionary activity. The data is due one day in advance of the strongly correlated ISM manufacturing index.

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Flag	Country	Event
27/03/2023	0800/1000	***		DE	IFO Business Climate Index
27/03/2023	0800/1000	**		EU	M3
27/03/2023	0845/0945			UK	BOE Treasury Select Committee Hearing on Silicon Valley Bank
27/03/2023	1000/1100	**		UK	CBI Distributive Trades
27/03/2023	1340/1540			EU	ECB Elderson Speech at Foreign Bankers' Association
27/03/2023	1430/1030	**		US	Dallas Fed manufacturing survey
27/03/2023	1500/1700			EU	ECB Schnabel in Conversation at Columbia University
27/03/2023	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
27/03/2023	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
27/03/2023	1700/1800			UK	BOE Bailey Speech at LSE
27/03/2023	1700/1300	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Note
27/03/2023	2100/1700			US	Fed Governor Philip Jefferson
28/03/2023	2301/0001	*		UK	BRC Monthly Shop Price Index
28/03/2023	0030/1130	**		AU	Retail Trade
28/03/2023	0645/0845	**		FR	Manufacturing Sentiment
28/03/2023	0800/1000	**		IT	ISTAT Business Confidence
28/03/2023	0800/1000	**		IT	ISTAT Consumer Confidence
28/03/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Advance Trade, Advance Business Inventories
28/03/2023	1255/0855	**		US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
28/03/2023	1300/0900	**		US	S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
28/03/2023	1300/0900	**		US	FHFA Home Price Index
28/03/2023	1315/1515			EU	ECB Lagarde Speech at BIS Innovation Hub Opening
28/03/2023	1400/1000	***		US	Conference Board Consumer Confidence
28/03/2023	1400/1000	**		US	Richmond Fed Survey
28/03/2023	1400/1000			US	Senate Banking Committee Hearing
28/03/2023	1430/1030	**		US	Dallas Fed Services Survey
28/03/2023	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill
28/03/2023	1700/1300	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill
28/03/2023	1700/1300	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 5 Year Note
28/03/2023	2000/1600			CA	Federal budget (Release around 4pm, as finance minister delivers it to Parliament)
29/03/2023	0600/0800	**		SE	Retail Sales
29/03/2023	0600/0800	*		DE	GFK Consumer Climate
29/03/2023	0600/1400	**		CN	MNI China Liquidity Suvey
29/03/2023	0645/0845	**		FR	Consumer Sentiment
29/03/2023	0700/0900	**		SE	Economic Tendency Indicator
29/03/2023	0830/0930	**		UK	BOE M4
29/03/2023	0830/0930	**		UK	BOE Lending to Individuals
29/03/2023	0930/1030			UK	Bank of England FPC Report/minutes
29/03/2023	1100/0700	**		US	MBA Weekly Applications Index
29/03/2023	1400/1000	**		US	NAR Pending Home Sales
29/03/2023	1400/1000			US	US House Financial Services Hearing
29/03/2023	1430/1030	**		US	DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
29/03/2023	1530/1130	**		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Floating Rate Note
29/03/2023	1630/1230			CA	BOC Deputy Gravelle speech "The market liquidity measures we took during COVID"
29/03/2023	1700/1300	**		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 7 Year Note
29/03/2023	1850/1950			UK	BOE Mann Panellist at NABE
29/03/2023	2045/2245			EU	ECB Schnabel Panels NABE Conference
30/03/2023	0530/0730	***		DE	North Rhine Westphalia CPI
30/03/2023	0700/0900	***		ES	HICP (p)
30/03/2023	0800/1000	***		DE	Bavaria CPI
30/03/2023	0800/1000	***		DE	Hesse CPI
30/03/2023	0900/1100	**		IT	PPI
30/03/2023	0900/1100	**		EU	EZ Economic Sentiment Indicator
30/03/2023	0900/1100	***		DE	Saxony CPI
30/03/2023	1200/1400	***		DE	HICP (p)
30/03/2023	1230/0830	*		CA	Payroll employment
30/03/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Jobless Claims
30/03/2023	1230/0830	**		US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
30/03/2023	1230/0830	***		US	GDP
30/03/2023	1430/1030	**		US	Natural Gas Stocks
30/03/2023	1645/1245			US	Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin
30/03/2023	1645/1245			US	Boston Fed's Susan Collins
31/03/2023	0130/0930	***		CN	CFLP Manufacturing PMI
31/03/2023	0600/0700	***		UK	GDP Second Estimate
31/03/2023	0600/0700	*		UK	Quarterly current account balance
31/03/2023	0600/0800	**		DE	Retail Sales
31/03/2023	0630/0830	**		CH	retail sales
31/03/2023	0645/0845	**		FR	Consumer Spending
31/03/2023	0645/0845	***		FR	HICP (p)
31/03/2023	0645/0845	**		FR	PPI
31/03/2023	0700/0900	*		CH	KOF Economic Barometer
31/03/2023	0755/0955	**		DE	Unemployment
31/03/2023	0900/1100	***		IT	HICP (p)
31/03/2023	0900/1100	***		EU	HICP (p)
31/03/2023	0900/1100	**		EU	Unemployment
31/03/2023	1230/0830	***		CA	Gross Domestic Product by Industry
31/03/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Personal Income and Consumption
31/03/2023	1342/0942	**		US	MNI Chicago PMI
31/03/2023	1400/1000	***		US	Final Michigan Sentiment Index
31/03/2023	1400/1000			US	Fed Governor Christopher Waller
31/03/2023	1500/1700			EU	ECB Lagarde Q&A with Students
31/03/2023	1500/1100			CA	Finance Dept monthly Fiscal Monitor (expected)
31/03/2023	1600/1200	**		US	USDA GrainStock - NASS
31/03/2023	1600/1200	***		US	USDA PROSPECTIVE PLANTINGS - NASS
31/03/2023	1900/1500			US	New York Fed's John Williams
31/03/2023	2145/1745			US	Fed Governor Lisa Cook