MNI Global Week Ahead February 1 – 5

Key Things to Watch:

• Monday, February 1 – U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index
  • U.S. manufacturing likely held steady in January, with the Institute for Supply Management's monthly index forecast at 60, according to Bloomberg, following a reading of 60.5 in December that was the highest since August 2018.

• Thursday, February 4 – Bank of England Policy Decision
  • Markets expect the key rate to be unchanged at 0.1% and the QE program unchanged at GBP895 billion.
  • Focus will be on the forecasts for growth and inflation.
  • The Bank has the quandary of incorporating a downgrade in Q4 and Q1 projections following lockdowns and the hope of a brighter H1 as the vaccine rollout kicks in.
  • The BOE will also update the consultation on negative rates at the back end of 2020 and is likely to state whether and how the banking system can deal with below zero policy rates and whether the BOE can operate with them if needed.

• Friday, February 5 – U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls
  • Payrolls should return to growth after falling in November for the first time since bottoming out in April. The economy likely added 55,000 jobs last month, according to the Bloomberg consensus.
• Jobless claims remained stubbornly high through December, suggesting further labor market weakness, but analysts say most of the job loss has been in food services and retail, which could be offset by hiring in goods-producing industries.