MNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD: Fed and BOE Lead The Way

The week ahead will focus on rate decisions from the RBA, Fed, Norges Bank and the Bank of England as the global tightening trend continues.

Monday

Italy Flash Q3 GDP: Italian GDP is expected to contract by -0.1% q/q in the flash Q3 data, after having expanded by +1.1% q/q in Q2.

Eurozone Flash CPI & Q3 GDP: Eurozone GDP will likely be boosted by Friday’s increase in German GDP, which saw the economy advance by +0.3% q/q versus an expected -0.1% q/q contraction. The consensus is looking for a modest +0.1% to +0.2% q/q expansion, all but stalling as soaring inflation cuts into demand.

Substantial inflation beats from France, Italy and Germany from Friday will add significant upside pressure to Monday's aggregate release. The headline figure was initially anticipated to soften by 0.5pp to +9.5% y/y, however, today's recent forecasts have shifted to around +10.3 to +10.7%.

This will be uncomfortable news for the ECB following Thursday's 75bps hike, and makes a second 75bp in December highly probable. The terminal rate is now expected to be closer to 2.25%.

MNI Chicago Report: MNI’s Chicago report is due on Monday ahead of the ISM manufacturing PMI on Tuesday which fell sharply to 45.7 in September.

Tuesday

RBA Rate Decision: The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to deliver a 25bp hike to 2.85% at its monthly meeting after the September quarter CPI rose at a 7.3% y/y pace. This has since triggered the pricing in of additional hikes and a terminal rate above 4%.

US ISM Manufacturing PMI: The ISM manufacturing PMI is projected to stall at the breakeven point of 50 in October, down 0.9 points from September. Sliding new orders will be the key downwards driver, as global demand weakens on the back of recessionary fears. This would be the lowest since May 2020 and in line with S&P Global’s PMI, which is slightly contractionary at 49.9 – the final print will be due shortly beforehand.

Wednesday:

Final Eurozone Manufacturing PMIs: First and final prints are due for Italy and Spain, likely to show a deeper fall in business activity as new orders fall across the bloc. Final services PMIs are due on Friday.

FOMC Rate Decision: The November FOMC meeting is mainly about the message the Fed wants to send about its plans for December.

A 4th consecutive 75bp hike is assured this time. But a step-down to a 50bp hike at the following meeting looks like the path of least resistance – the question is, how strongly does the FOMC seek to express that view now. In a close call, we expect only limited changes to the Statement – but anticipate that Chair Powell will signal that the Committee is currently eyeing either 50bp or 75bp in December, with the decision to be data-dependent. Thursday

Norway Rate Decision: The Norges Bank will be tossing up either 25bp or 50bp for their November hike and consensus is relatively evenly split. Following the surprise acceleration in CPI to +6.9% y/y in September, a 50bp hike may be necessary despite contradicting the signal in the last meeting of slowing the pace.

Eurozone Unemployment: The euro-area labour market is set to remain tight in September at the record low of 6.6%, underpinning confidence in the ECB’s hiking cycle.

BOE Meeting: A 75bp hike remains the base case for the Bank of England’s Thursday meeting, although a 50bp hike cannot be ruled out as the committee remains vastly divided. Markets have largely scaled back incredibly hawkish expectations following financial market instability associated with the botched “mini budget”.

ISM Services PMI: The ISM services PMI is forecast to weaken by 1.2 points to 55.5, remaining elevated above the contractionary S&P Global index. The ISM Services PMI and S&P Global services PMI have diverged notably since June 2022 – see our data insight piece here: https://marketnews.com/implications-of-the-u-s-ser...

Friday

US Nonfarm Payrolls: Consensus sees payroll growth continuing to moderate at 200k, moving closer to pre-pandemic averages but still very solid at this stage in the cycle. The unemployment rate is expected to tick up a tenth to 3.6% off joint record lows after the surprise decline in Sep, partly on the back of the same-sized increase in participation.

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Flag	Country	Event
30/10/2022	-			BR	Brazil Second-Round Runoff Election
31/10/2022	0030/1130	**		AU	Retail Trade
31/10/2022	0130/0930	***		CN	CFLP Manufacturing PMI
31/10/2022	0130/0930	**		CN	CFLP Non-Manufacturing PMI
31/10/2022	0700/0800	**		DE	Retail Sales
31/10/2022	0730/0830	**		CH	retail sales
31/10/2022	0800/0900			ES	Retail Sales
31/10/2022	0900/1000	***		IT	GDP (p)
31/10/2022	0930/0930	**		UK	BOE Lending to Individuals
31/10/2022	0930/0930	**		UK	BOE M4
31/10/2022	1000/1100	***		EU	HICP (p)
31/10/2022	1000/1100	***		EU	EMU Preliminary Flash GDP Q/Q
31/10/2022	1000/1100	***		EU	EMU Preliminary Flash GDP Y/Y
31/10/2022	1345/0945	**		US	MNI Chicago PMI
31/10/2022	1430/1030	**		US	Dallas Fed manufacturing survey
31/10/2022	1500/1600			EU	ECB Lane Speech at Danmarks Nationalbank Conference
31/10/2022	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
31/10/2022	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
31/10/2022	1900/1500			US	Treasury Financing Estimates
01/11/2022	2200/0900	**		AU	IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f)
01/11/2022	0030/0930	**		JP	IHS Markit Final Japan Manufacturing PMI
01/11/2022	0145/0945	**		CN	IHS Markit Final China Manufacturing PMI
01/11/2022	0330/1430	***		AU	RBA Rate Decision
01/11/2022	0800/0900			CH	SECO Consumer Confidence
01/11/2022	0930/0930			UK	S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI
01/11/2022	0930/0930	**		UK	IHS Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Final)
01/11/2022	1000/1000	**		UK	Gilt Outright Auction Result
01/11/2022	-			DK	Danish General Election
01/11/2022	-	***		US	Domestic-Made Vehicle Sales
01/11/2022	1255/0855	**		US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
01/11/2022	1345/0945	***		US	IHS Markit Manufacturing Index (final)
01/11/2022	1400/1000	***		US	ISM Manufacturing Index
01/11/2022	1400/1000	*		US	Construction Spending
01/11/2022	1400/1000	**		US	JOLTS jobs opening level
01/11/2022	1400/1000	**		US	JOLTS quits Rate
01/11/2022	1530/1130	**		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 52 Week Bill
01/11/2022	2230/1830			CA	BOC Governor Macklem at Senate bank committee
02/11/2022	0001/0001	*		UK	BRC Monthly Shop Price Index
02/11/2022	0030/1130	**		AU	Lending Finance Details
02/11/2022	0030/1130	*		AU	Building Approvals
02/11/2022	0700/0800	**		DE	Trade Balance
02/11/2022	0815/0915	**		ES	IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f)
02/11/2022	0845/0945	**		IT	IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f)
02/11/2022	0850/0950			FR	S&P Global France Manufacturing PMI
02/11/2022	0850/0950	**		FR	IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f)
02/11/2022	0855/0955	**		DE	Unemployment
02/11/2022	0855/0955			DE	S&P Global/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI
02/11/2022	0855/0955	**		DE	IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f)
02/11/2022	0900/1000			EU	S&P Global Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
02/11/2022	0900/1000	**		EU	IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f)
02/11/2022	1100/0700	**		US	MBA Weekly Applications Index
02/11/2022	1215/0815	***		US	ADP Employment Report
02/11/2022	1400/1000	**		US	housing vacancies
02/11/2022	1430/1030	**		US	DOE weekly crude oil stocks
02/11/2022	1515/1115			CA	BOC director Ron Morrow speaks on payments supervision
02/11/2022	1800/1400	***		US	FOMC Statement
03/11/2022	2200/0900	*		AU	IHS Markit Final Australia Services PMI
03/11/2022	0030/1130	**		AU	Trade Balance
03/11/2022	0145/0945	**		CN	IHS Markit Final China Services PMI
03/11/2022	0700/0300	*		TR	Turkey CPI
03/11/2022	0730/0830	***		CH	CPI
03/11/2022	0750/0850			EU	ECB Lagarde Panels Latvijas Banka Conference
03/11/2022	0800/0900			EU	ECB Panetta Speech at ECB Money Market Conference
03/11/2022	0900/1000	***		NO	Norges Bank Rate Decision
03/11/2022	0930/0930			UK	S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI
03/11/2022	0930/0930	**		UK	IHS Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Final)
03/11/2022	0950/1050			EU	ECB Elderson Panels Latvijas Banka Conference
03/11/2022	1000/1100	**		EU	Unemployment
03/11/2022	1200/1200	***		UK	Bank Of England Interest Rate
03/11/2022	-			DE	G7 Foreign Ministers summit in Germany
03/11/2022	1230/0830	*		CA	Building Permits
03/11/2022	1230/0830	**		US	Jobless Claims
03/11/2022	1230/0830	**		US	Trade Balance
03/11/2022	1230/0830	**		US	Preliminary Non-Farm Productivity
03/11/2022	1230/0830	**		US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
03/11/2022	1345/0945	***		US	IHS Markit Services Index (final)
03/11/2022	1400/1000	***		US	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
03/11/2022	1400/1000	**		US	factory new orders
03/11/2022	1430/1030	**		US	Natural Gas Stocks
03/11/2022	1730/1330			CA	BOC Deputy Beaudry gives opening remarks before academic lecture
03/11/2022	2000/1600			CA	Canada FM Freeland presents fiscal update
04/11/2022	0030/1130	***		AU	RBA Statement on Monetary Policy
04/11/2022	0030/1130	***		AU	Retail trade quarterly
04/11/2022	0030/0930	**		JP	IHS Markit Final Japan Services PMI
04/11/2022	0700/0800	**		DE	Manufacturing Orders
04/11/2022	0745/0845	*		FR	Industrial Production
04/11/2022	0800/0900	**		ES	Industrial Production
04/11/2022	0815/0915	**		ES	IHS Markit Services PMI (f)
04/11/2022	0845/0945	**		IT	IHS Markit Services PMI (f)
04/11/2022	0845/0945			EU	ECB de Guindos Speech at Naturgy Foundation/IESE School
04/11/2022	0850/0950			FR	S&P Global France Services PMI
04/11/2022	0850/0950	**		FR	IHS Markit Services PMI (f)
04/11/2022	0855/0955			DE	S&P Global/BME Germany Services PMI
04/11/2022	0855/0955	**		DE	IHS Markit Services PMI (f)
04/11/2022	0900/1000			EU	S&P Global Eurozone Services PMI
04/11/2022	0900/1000	**		EU	IHS Markit Services PMI (f)
04/11/2022	0930/0930			UK	S&P Global/CIPS UK Construction PMI
04/11/2022	0930/0930	**		UK	IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI
04/11/2022	0930/1030			EU	ECB Lagarde Open Lecture
04/11/2022	1000/1100	**		EU	PPI
04/11/2022	-			DE	G7 Foreign Ministers summit in Germany
04/11/2022	1230/0830	***		CA	Labour Force Survey
04/11/2022	1230/0830	***		US	Employment Report
04/11/2022	1400/1000	*		CA	Ivey PMI
04/11/2022	1400/1000			US	Boston Fed's Susan Collins