MNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD - FLASH PMIs, US GDP AND DM/EM CBs

TUESDAY - OCTOBER FLASH PMIs

On Tuesday, we get the October round of flash PMIs. In the Eurozone, the September composite print saw a small uptick from August but remained in contractionary territory at 47.2. This was led by a slight rebound in services, with manufacturing remaining at historically weak levels. Germany and France have showed the steepest declines in sentiment over the last months, with the Eurozone peripheries faring somewhat better. In the UK, both manufacturing (44.3 vs 43.0 prior) and services (49.3 vs 49.5 prior) signalled contraction in September, while the US has seen marginally better outcomes, albeit with services falling to 50.1 in September (vs 50.5 prior).

WEDNESDAY - BANK OF CANDA DECISION

The BoC is almost unanimously expected to leave its policy rate on hold at 5% when it meets on Wednesday, with markets also pricing very low odds of a hike. Softer than expected CPI inflation in the second release since the previous BoC decision has been a decisive factor. Front end rates have seen a sizeable US-led rally in recent days but the question remains whether the BoC can be sufficiently hawkish to prevent an unwinding of the significant steepening seen in curves since its early September meeting. The decision will be accompanied by fresh forecasts in its quarterly Monetary Policy Report.

THURSDAY - US Q3 GDP

Thursday sees the advance release of Q3 national accounts in the US, with consensus for a strong bounce in real GDP growth to 4.5% annualized from 2.1% in Q2. Some estimates are stronger still, including the Atlanta Fed nowcast tracking 5.4% as of its Oct 18 update, having correctly been more optimistic than analysts ahead of the initial Q2 release three months ago. Personal consumption is expected to have helped drive this strength (3.9% after 0.8%), whilst the core PCE estimate will also be watched closely (seen at 2.5% annualized after 3.7%) for clues behind September’s outturn ahead of the monthly data on Friday.

THURSDAY - ECB DECISION

The ECB is firmly expected to leave rates unchanged at its October meeting on Thursday, per market pricing and unanimous analyst consensus. The decision to hike by 25bp last month was made by a "solid majority" of Governing Council members, alongside signals that rates have likely peaked. Since then, there has only been one inflation print - which came in softer than expectations. However, some underlying metrics that the ECB follows suggest stickier inflation dynamics at play. Overall, there has simply not been enough data between meetings to justify another hike, but the ECB will be closely watched in December to see how they weigh growth concerns and geopolitical risks against another two inflation readings.

TUESDAY / THURSDAY / FRIDAY - EM RATE DECISIONS

HUNGARY: The NBH rate decision takes focus on Tuesday. Having completed the process of rate normalisation in September, the central bank are expected to moderate the pace of rate hikes at this meeting – though all options from no change to another 100bp cut are on the table.

TURKEY: The CBRT are expected to deliver another large-scale rate hike on Thursday with a 500bp increase to the one-week repo rate. However, with headline inflation running above 60% and expected to increase through year-end, real rates still remain deeply negative.

CHILE: The BCCh is widely expected to continue its easing cycle with another 75bp reference rate cut to 8.75% on Thursday. However, most recent comments regarding the significant weakening of the peso suggest the decision is not a forgone conclusion.

RUSSIA: No change to the CBR’s key rate is the likely outcome on Friday. Risks are skewed to the upside, however, given the weak ruble and hawkish bias of the central bank.

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Flag	Country	Event
23/10/2023	1400/1600	**		EU	Consumer Confidence Indicator (p)
23/10/2023	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
23/10/2023	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
24/10/2023	2200/0900	***		AU	Judo Bank Flash Australia PMI
24/10/2023	0030/0930	**		JP	Jibun Bank Flash Japan PMI
24/10/2023	0600/0800	*		DE	GFK Consumer Climate
24/10/2023	0600/0700	***		UK	Labour Market Survey
24/10/2023	0715/0915	**		FR	S&P Global Services PMI (p)
24/10/2023	0715/0915	**		FR	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p)
24/10/2023	0730/0930	**		DE	S&P Global Services PMI (p)
24/10/2023	0730/0930	**		DE	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p)
24/10/2023	0800/1000			EU	ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q3 2023)
24/10/2023	0800/1000	**		EU	S&P Global Services PMI (p)
24/10/2023	0800/1000	**		EU	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p)
24/10/2023	0800/1000	**		EU	S&P Global Composite PMI (p)
24/10/2023	0830/0930	***		UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI flash
24/10/2023	0830/0930	***		UK	S&P Global Services PMI flash
24/10/2023	0830/0930	***		UK	S&P Global Composite PMI flash
24/10/2023	0900/1000	*		UK	Index Linked Gilt Outright Auction Result
24/10/2023	0900/0500	*		US	Business Inventories
24/10/2023	1000/1100	**		UK	CBI Industrial Trends
24/10/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index
24/10/2023	1255/0855	**		US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
24/10/2023	1345/0945	***		US	IHS Markit Manufacturing Index (flash)
24/10/2023	1345/0945	***		US	S&P Global Services Index (flash)
24/10/2023	1400/1000	**		US	Richmond Fed Survey
24/10/2023	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill
24/10/2023	1700/1300	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Note
25/10/2023	0030/1130	***		AU	CPI inflation
25/10/2023	0600/1400	**		CN	MNI China Liquidity Survey
25/10/2023	0600/0800	**		SE	PPI
25/10/2023	0700/0900	**		ES	PPI
25/10/2023	0800/1000	**		EU	M3
25/10/2023	0800/1000	***		DE	IFO Business Climate Index
25/10/2023	0900/1000	**		UK	Gilt Outright Auction Result
25/10/2023	1100/0700	**		US	MBA Weekly Applications Index
25/10/2023	1300/1500	**		BE	BNB Business Sentiment
25/10/2023	1400/1000	***		CA	Bank of Canada Policy Decision
25/10/2023	1400/1000			CA	Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report
25/10/2023	1400/1000	***		US	New Home Sales
25/10/2023	1430/1030	**		US	DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
25/10/2023	1500/1100			CA	Bank of Canada Governor press conference
25/10/2023	1530/1130	**		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Floating Rate Note
25/10/2023	1700/1300	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 5 Year Note
25/10/2023	2035/1635			US	Fed Chair Jerome Powell
26/10/2023	0030/1130	**		AU	Trade price indexes
26/10/2023	0700/0900	**		SE	Economic Tendency Indicator
26/10/2023	1000/1100	**		UK	CBI Distributive Trades
26/10/2023	1215/1415	***		EU	ECB Deposit Rate
26/10/2023	1215/1415	***		EU	ECB Main Refi Rate
26/10/2023	1215/1415	***		EU	ECB Marginal Lending Rate
26/10/2023	1230/0830	***		US	Jobless Claims
26/10/2023	1230/0830	**		US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
26/10/2023	1230/0830	*		CA	Payroll employment
26/10/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Durable Goods New Orders
26/10/2023	1230/0830	***		US	GDP
26/10/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Advance Trade, Advance Business Inventories
26/10/2023	1245/1445			EU	Press conference post- governing council meeting of ECB
26/10/2023	1300/0900			US	Fed Governor Christopher Waller
26/10/2023	1400/1000	**		US	NAR Pending Home Sales
26/10/2023	1415/1615			EU	ECB's Lagarde presents monetary policy decisions via Podcast
26/10/2023	1430/1030	**		US	Natural Gas Stocks
26/10/2023	1500/1100	**		US	Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
26/10/2023	1645/1745			UK	BoE's Cunliffe Speaks at Fed Conference
26/10/2023	1700/1300	**		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 7 Year Note
27/10/2023	2330/0830	**		JP	Tokyo CPI
27/10/2023	0030/1130	*		AU	Producer price index q/q
27/10/2023	0600/0800	**		SE	Retail Sales
27/10/2023	0645/0845	**		FR	Consumer Sentiment
27/10/2023	0700/0900	***		ES	GDP (p)
27/10/2023	0800/1000	**		IT	ISTAT Business Confidence
27/10/2023	0800/1000	**		IT	ISTAT Consumer Confidence
27/10/2023	-			EU	ECB's Lagarde Participates in Euro Summit
27/10/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Personal Income and Consumption
27/10/2023	1300/0900			US	Fed's Michael Barr
27/10/2023	1400/1000	**		US	U. Mich. Survey of Consumers
27/10/2023	1500/1100			CA	Finance Dept monthly Fiscal Monitor (expected)