MNI Global Week Ahead January 11 – 15

Key Things to Watch:

• Thursday, January 14 – U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims
  • U.S. initial jobless claims filed through January 9 are expected to hold steady at 785,000 after reaching 787,000 through January 2.
  • Stubbornly high initial and continuing claims levels and a loss of 140,000 jobs in December suggest some labor market deterioration following a period of tepid recovery. As of December 19, 19.2 million Americans were claiming unemployment insurance benefits.

• Friday, January 15 – UK GDP
  • Sharp downturn expected for November, as the UK saw a move into lockdown 2.0. Analysts expect GDP to decline 4.8%; substantial but far from April's 20% drop.
  • The 5.8% decline expected in services will be the biggest drag. December is expected to see a modest recovery because some areas came out of lockdown, but the re-introduction of stay-at-home guidance in January will weigh on Q1.

• Friday, January 15 – U.S. Retail Sales
  • U.S. retail sales were likely unchanged in December after November's larger-than-expected 1.1% drop, according to Bloomberg.
  • Mobility was constrained as service businesses in some areas were mandated to close and tighter social distancing guidelines restricted holiday gatherings.
• Weakness in restaurant receipts and store sales should be at least partially offset by surging online sales.