MNI Global Week Ahead June 28 – July 2

Key Things to Watch:

• Wednesday, June 30 – Eurozone Inflation
  • National states report their own flash numbers before the main EZ number is published by Eurostat on Wednesday, with expectations of a slight deceleration in the speed of annual gains.
  • The main national releases are due from Spain and Germany on Tuesday, with France and Italy publishing on Wednesday. Analysts expect a slowing in all the national readings, with German headline Y/Y expected to be 1.9%.
  • The headline pan-eurozone number is forecast to come in at 1.8% y/y, slower than the 2% rise seen in May and despite a 0.2% m/m gain. The core reading is forecast to slow to 0.9% from 1.0%.

• Thursday, July 1 – U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index
  • Manufacturing activity held steady in June and the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index should tick down to 61 from 61.2 in May.
  • Analysts say the ongoing semiconductor shortage could have restrained some production through the month, but firms are still seeing high demand even as spending shifts toward services.

• Friday, July 2 – U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls
  • Hiring accelerated in June, with employers adding up to 700,000 jobs through the month, according to Bloomberg. New graduates and students off for the summer expanded the labor pool, but the supply of available workers last month remained muted, putting more upward pressure on wages.
• Strong job growth should push the unemployment rate down to 5.6% from 5.8%, according to Bloomberg.