MNI Global Week Ahead March 22 – 26

Key Things to Watch:

• Wednesday, March 24 – UK CPI
  • UK headline inflation is expected to edge higher in February, although remaining far below the Bank of England's 2% target level for a 19th straight month. The median forecast is for CPI to rise 0.5% m/m (-0.2% in Jan) and 0.8% y/y (0.7% in Jan). Prices will largely be driven by higher oil prices than a year ago.
  • Core CPI is seen unchanged this month at 1.4%.
  • The BOE expects inflation to rise steadily through the year, certainly hitting target, although price rises are seen as transitory and likely to fall back in 2022.

• Wednesday, March 24 – U.S. Durable Goods New Orders
  • New orders of durable goods likely faltered in February, with orders expected to increase just 0.8% following a 3.4% increase in January, according to Bloomberg.
  • Transportation and defense orders that drove the previous month's gain likely slowed.
  • Excluding transportation orders, durable goods orders should increase 0.6% after rising 1.3% in January, according to Bloomberg.

• Thursday, 24 – U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims
  • U.S. initial jobless claims filed through March 20 should fall to 738,000 from 770,000 through March 13, according to Bloomberg.
  • This week is likely to mark the 52^nd consecutive week that more than one million Americans filed for unemployment when special programs like the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program are factored into the total.
• Continuing claims through March 13 are expected to dip to 4.03 million after falling to 4.12 million through March 6.