MNI Global Week Ahead May 10 – 14

Key Things to Watch:

• Wednesday, May 12 – UK Q1 GDP
  • Compared with Q4 2020, GDP is seen contracting 1.6%, a far better outcome than some of the forecasts for a 4% decline as the nation entered a third lockdown on Jan. 4.
  • Growth also now looks set to pick up strongly as the economy reopens, with the Bank of England seeing 7.25% growth for the year.
  • Year-on-year, Q1 GDP is seen down 6.1%, an improvement on the 7.3% contraction seen in Q4.

• Wednesday, May 12 – U.S. CPI
  • Prices should increase 0.2% through April, according to Bloomberg, following a 0.6% gain in March. Supply chain disruptions and strong demand are pushing up the CPI.
  • Wage pressures driven by a labor shortage should also add temporary upward pressure to inflation.
  • Excluding food and energy, CPI should increase 0.3%, the same as March.

• Friday, May 14 – U.S. Retail Sales
  • Sales are expected to have slowed through April after a stronger-than-expected March, with Bloomberg forecasting a gain of 1.1%. Momentum from government stimulus and business re-openings that fueled spending through March extended into April.
• Excluding motor vehicle sales, retail sales should have increased 0.8%, and excluding sales from both vehicles and gas stations, retail sales should rise 0.7%.