MNI Global Week Ahead October 5 - 9

Key Things to Watch For:

• Tuesday, October 6 – RBA Policy Decision
  
  
  • The Reserve Bank of Australia Board meets amid expectations the increasingly dovish central bank could cut official interest rates from the current record low 0.25% and announce a new program to purchase more Government bonds. The meeting coincides with the federal budget to be delivered later the same day.
  • There is also a view that the bank could delay further monetary easing until its November meeting, allowing the Government to explain its budget measures and for them to have an impact on sentiment.
  • The signals from the bank, as expressed in a speech by Deputy Governor Guy Debelle last week, have been that more rate cuts are being considered, although zero or negative rates have been largely ruled out.
• Some believe the RBA is looking at cutting rates to as low as 0.01%, although MNI's understanding is that while the RBA has lowered its view on the effective lower bound for the cash rate from 0.25%, a smaller cut is more likely. That makes the government's funding task much easier.

• Wednesday, October 7 - FOMC September Meeting Minutes
  
  
  • Wednesday's minutes could provide clues about the debate over forward guidance, where two members dissented.
  • Look to see the debate among Fed officials on the central bank's asset purchases.
• The FOMC in September implemented its policy shift to flexible average inflation targeting with the issuance of outcome-based forward guidance, and the SEP indicated near-zero interest rates into 2024.

• Thursday, October 8 – U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims
  
  
• Initial jobless claims filed through October 3 should reach 820,000 (Bloomberg median) following a dip to 837,000 through September 26.
• Initial claims levels remain stubbornly high, but continuing claims figures continue to steadily decline, suggesting some underlying strength in rehiring activity.