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MNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD - RBA, Riksbank and BoE Headline

The week ahead is headlined by the RBA, Riksbank and BoE decisions.

TUESDAY - RBA Decision

The RBA is widely expected to leave rates at 4.35% at its May meeting. There is some chance that the tightening bias will be reinstated following the higher-than-expected Q1 CPI data but we believe that is unlikely given it was only dropped at the last meeting. Updated staff forecasts will be published with the May meeting statement and even if there are near-term upward revisions to inflation, the timing of the return to target will be key. If it is pushed out into 2026, then tightening risks will rise materially. There is likely enough room within the forecast though for this not to happen and so we think a prolonged hold is currently the most likely scenario.

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TUESDAY - RBA Decision

The RBA is widely expected to leave rates at 4.35% at its May meeting. There is some chance that the tightening bias will be reinstated following the higher-than-expected Q1 CPI data but we believe that is unlikely given it was only dropped at the last meeting. Updated staff forecasts will be published with the May meeting statement and even if there are near-term upward revisions to inflation, the timing of the return to target will be key. If it is pushed out into 2026, then tightening risks will rise materially. There is likely enough room within the forecast though for this not to happen and so we think a prolonged hold is currently the most likely scenario.

Keep reading...Show less