MNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD: UK & Canada CPI in Focus

The week ahead sees a pick up in data releases, with a big week for UK data, as well as Canadian CPI headlining the schedule.

Europe:

Germany ZEW Index (Tuesday): Another substantial slide is anticipated for the German ZEW survey, with expectations projected to fall 6.2 points to -60.0 and the current situation assessment to -52.0. would see the expectations index only just remaining above GFC lows. Energy prices, persistent supply issues, imminent tightening by the ECB and concerns regarding gas supply into the year-end all remain key concerns driving the index down.

Germany PPI (Friday): German factory-gate inflation will likely ease for the second consecutive month in the July data, down 0.7pp to +32.0% y/y, despite the month-on-month seen inching up again by 0.1pp to +0.7% m/m.

UK:

Labour Report (Tuesday): Another strong labour report is expected, with the ILO unemployment rate to remain at 3.8%, and the jobless claims change to also be in the low negatives following -20.0k in May. The focus will again be on average weekly earnings, which will likely slow to +4.6% 3m/yoy and inch up to +4.5% 3m/yoy ex. bonuses. Real wages in the UK are set to fall again in June, as pay deals and bonus payments fail to keep pace with soaring inflation.

CPI (Wednesday): On that note, a 0.4pp acceleration to +9.8% y/y is projected for the headline UK inflation rate in July, as CPI moves closer to the +13.3% y/y October peak as anticipated by the Bank of England. Following the early-August 50bp hike, major upside surprises could nudge the Bank towards 50bp again in the September meeting, despite a five-quarter recession set to commence in Q4.

Retail Sales (Friday): July retail sales should contract for the fourth consecutive month, albeit a little softer at -3.3% y/y (versus -5.8% y/y in June). As disposable incomes continue to feel the squeeze of soaring inflation with no signs of easing, retail will continue to suffer into year-end.

US:

Industrial Production (Tuesday): A modest improvement to +0.3% m/m in July (vs -0.2% in June) could see a revival of optimism for the US industrial sector. This follows upside surprises in European data, largely underpinned by a rebound in domestic energy sectors.

Retail Sales (Wednesday): The July data is projected to see retail sales all but stall, as consumers tighten their purse strings at +8.5% y/y inflation. Easing price pressures going forwards will likely see an improvement in consumer sentiment, however a lag is likely before retail picks up again in the holiday season.

Canada:

CPI (Tuesday): A substantial 0.5pp slowdown to +7.6% y/y is expected for July inflation, coming off the June peak. This would be the first month of easing annualised CPI since June 2021, and welcome news ahead of the BOC’s September meeting.

Source: MNI / Bloomberg

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Flag	Country	Event
15/08/2022	2350/0850			JP	GDP First Estimate
15/08/2022	1230/0830	**		CA	Monthly Survey of Manufacturing
15/08/2022	1230/0830	**		CA	Wholesale Trade
15/08/2022	1230/0830	**		US	Empire State Manufacturing Survey
15/08/2022	1300/0900	*		CA	Home Sales – CREA (Canadian real estate association)
15/08/2022	1400/1000	**		US	NAHB Home Builder Index
15/08/2022	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
15/08/2022	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
15/08/2022	2000/1600	**		US	TICS
16/08/2022	0600/0700	***		UK	Labour Market Survey
16/08/2022	0900/1100	***		DE	ZEW Current Conditions Index
16/08/2022	0900/1100	***		DE	ZEW Current Expectations Index
16/08/2022	0900/1000	**		UK	Gilt Outright Auction Result
16/08/2022	0900/1100	*		EU	Trade Balance
16/08/2022	1215/0815	**		CA	CMHC Housing Starts
16/08/2022	1230/0830	***		CA	CPI
16/08/2022	1230/0830	***		US	Housing Starts
16/08/2022	1255/0855	**		US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
16/08/2022	1315/0915	***		US	Industrial Production
17/08/2022	0130/1130	***		AU	Quarterly wage price index
17/08/2022	0200/1400	***		NZ	RBNZ official cash rate decision
17/08/2022	0600/0700	***		UK	Producer Prices
17/08/2022	0600/0700	***		UK	Consumer inflation report
17/08/2022	0600/0800	**		NO	Norway GDP
17/08/2022	0830/0930	*		UK	ONS House Price Index
17/08/2022	0900/1100	*		EU	Employment
17/08/2022	0900/1100	***		EU	GDP (p)
17/08/2022	1100/0700	**		US	MBA Weekly Applications Index
17/08/2022	1230/0830	***		US	Retail Sales
17/08/2022	1400/1000	*		US	Business Inventories
17/08/2022	1430/1030	**		US	DOE weekly crude oil stocks
17/08/2022	1700/1300	**		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 20 Year Bond
18/08/2022	0130/1130	***		AU	Labor force survey
18/08/2022	0700/0900	***		NO	Norges Bank Rate Decision
18/08/2022	0900/1100	***		EU	HICP (f)
18/08/2022	0900/1100	**		EU	Construction Production
18/08/2022	1230/0830	*		CA	Industrial Product and Raw Material Price Index
18/08/2022	1230/0830	**		US	Jobless Claims
18/08/2022	1230/0830	**		US	Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
18/08/2022	1230/0830	**		US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
18/08/2022	1400/1000	***		US	NAR existing home sales
18/08/2022	1400/1000	*		US	Services Revenues
18/08/2022	1400/1000	**		US	leading indicators
18/08/2022	1430/1030	**		US	Natural Gas Stocks
18/08/2022	1700/1300	**		US	US Treasury Auction Result for TIPS 30 Year Bond
18/08/2022	1715/1915			EU	ECB Schnabel Presentation at IHK Reception
19/08/2022	2301/0001	**		UK	Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence
19/08/2022	2330/0830			JP	Natl CPI
19/08/2022	0600/0700	***		UK	Retail Sales
19/08/2022	0600/0700	***		UK	Public Sector Finances
19/08/2022	0600/0800	**		DE	PPI
19/08/2022	0800/1000	**		EU	EZ Current Acc
19/08/2022	1230/0830	**		CA	Retail Trade