MNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD: UK Data in Focus

MONDAY

Canada Manufacturing & Business/Consumer Outlooks: Canadian manufacturing sales are expected to dampen to +0.3% m/m in the November survey, slowing substantially from the strong +2.8% m/m recorded in October, which was largely boosted by petroleum and coal production. Statistics Canada has cautioned that this is nominal data measured in CAD. As such, today’s data should be interpreted with the IPPI of -0.4% m/m in November.

The BOC’s Q4 Business Outlook Survey will also be released today, likely to hint at a continued weakness in demand, yet a soft boost from improved inflation outlooks. Focus will be on the Future Sales value. Another negative value would imply four consecutive quarters below zero, a record streak after the GFC recorded only two consecutive quarters sub-zero. Investment spending and employment expectations data will also be of note.

TUESDAY

UK Labour Report: The UK labour market is forecasted to remain tight in the November report, with payrolled employees to increase by around 60k and the three-month unemployment rate to hold steady at 3.7%. Yet waning vacancies could signal weaking outlooks. The BOE will be closely watching the earnings data, which should inch up by 0.1-0.2pp to +6.2% (3m/yoy) and +6.3% (ex bonuses).

Germany ZEW Survey: The January ZEW survey of financial markets should indicate further improvements in expectations and current situation assessments, albeit both indicators remaining in negative territory. Improvements will be largely based on reduced uncertainty boosting optimism. This more positive start to the year followed a robust 2022 full-year GDP print for the largest eurozone nation, which hinted at the economy possibly having avoided a Q4 contraction.

Canada CPI: Canadian inflation is set to ease further in the December data, with consensus looking for a -0.5% m/m fall in prices (after +0.1% in Nov). This would see headline CPI ease by 0.4pp to +6.4% y/y, decelerating further from the +8.1% y/y peak recorded in June. Core CPI will need to moderate further to justify a pause in the BOC’s hiking cycle after the anticipated slowdown to a 25bp hike at the end of the month.

WEDNESDAY
Japan Policy Rate Decision: The BOJ is largely seen holding its policy rate at -0.100% at the January meeting. Markets will be closely watching for the outside risk of the Bank modifying or ending the YCC.

UK CPI: UK inflation is seen easing further in December, ticking down by 0.2pp to +10.5% y/y, remaining above the 10% level since July (barring the August reading of +9.9% y/y). This would represent only the second month of cooling headline inflation, in part due to the Ofgem energy price cap which has generated sticky energy prices.

Core CPI is projected to inch down by 0.1pp to +6.2% y/y. This modest improvement would be an optimistic signal for the BOE and its divided MCP. The CPI data follows the upside surprise in November GDP, which was boosted by service sector activity (for which the FIFA World Cup played a major part). As such, some Q4 growth forecasts have edged cautiously back into positive territory.

Eurozone Final CPI: Following final prints for France and Spain (Friday), and Germany and Italy (Tuesday), eurozone final CPI looks to be confirmed at -0.3% m/m and +9.2% y/y in December.

US PPI, Industrial Production & Retail Sales: December industrial production and retail sales are expected to remain in the red in December, implying a weak finish to 2023. Retail sales are seen diving by -0.9% m/m in December after -0.6% m/m in November, as high inflation and interest rates cut into disposable income and propensity to spend this holiday season.

IP is anticipated to see a shallow contraction of -0.1% m/m following -0.2% m/m. This would signal three months of month-on-month contractions, in line with PMI survey data which has largely pointed to a contractionary end to Q4 on the back of weak new orders. Final demand PPI is also due, expected to fall by -0.1% m/m due to weaker energy prices after the +0.3% m/m uptick in November.

THURSDAY

Norges Rate Decision: Norges Bank is anticipated to hold deposit rates steady at 2.75% at the January meeting. The Bloomberg consensus remains divided, suggesting an outside risk of a 25bp hike remains on the table after the Bank’s guidance pencilled in a 3.00% policy rate for Q1 2023.

FRIDAY

UK Consumer Confidence & Retail Sales: Consumer sentiment is projected to remain deeply negative at -41 in the January GfK survey, implying only a one-point uptick as the index edges further away from the September recorded low of -49. The December survey saw falling real wages imply a deeply negative 12-month personal financial situation outlooks, which will likely continue into January and feed into depressed consumer spending.

UK December Retail sales are projected to see some recovery in December, boosted by more robust than initially expected holiday-season spending, up +0.4% m/m after a -0.3% m/m slide in November.

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Flag	Country	Event
16/01/2023	-			EU	ECB Lagarde & Panetta at Eurogroup Meeting
16/01/2023	1400/0900	*		CA	CREA Existing Home Sales
16/01/2023	1500/1500			UK	BOE Treasury Select Committee Hearing on FSR
16/01/2023	1530/1030	**		CA	BOC Business Outlook Survey
17/01/2023	0200/1000	***		CN	Fixed-Asset Investment
17/01/2023	0200/1000	***		CN	Retail Sales
17/01/2023	0200/1000	***		CN	Industrial Output
17/01/2023	0200/1000	**		CN	Surveyed Unemployment Rate
17/01/2023	0700/0700	***		UK	Labour Market Survey
17/01/2023	0700/0800	***		DE	HICP (f)
17/01/2023	0900/1000	**		IT	Italy Final HICP
17/01/2023	1000/1100	***		DE	ZEW Current Conditions Index
17/01/2023	1000/1100	***		DE	ZEW Current Expectations Index
17/01/2023	1000/1000	**		UK	Gilt Outright Auction Result
17/01/2023	-			EU	ECB de Guindos at ECOFIN Meeting
17/01/2023	1315/0815	**		CA	CMHC Housing Starts
17/01/2023	1330/0830	***		CA	CPI
17/01/2023	1330/0830	**		US	Empire State Manufacturing Survey
17/01/2023	1630/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
17/01/2023	1630/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
17/01/2023	2000/1500			US	New York Fed's John Williams
18/01/2023	0001/0001	*		UK	XpertHR pay deals for whole economy
18/01/2023	0700/0700	***		UK	Consumer inflation report
18/01/2023	0930/0930	*		UK	ONS House Price Index
18/01/2023	1000/1100	***		EU	HICP (f)
18/01/2023	1000/1100	**		EU	Construction Production
18/01/2023	1200/0700	**		US	MBA Weekly Applications Index
18/01/2023	-			JP	Bank of Japan policy decision
18/01/2023	1330/0830	*		CA	Industrial Product and Raw Material Price Index
18/01/2023	1330/0830	***		US	PPI
18/01/2023	1330/0830	***		US	Retail Sales
18/01/2023	1355/0855	**		US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
18/01/2023	1400/0900			US	Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic
18/01/2023	1415/0915	***		US	Industrial Production
18/01/2023	1500/1000	*		US	Business Inventories
18/01/2023	1500/1000	**		US	NAHB Home Builder Index
18/01/2023	1800/1300	**		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 20 Year Bond
18/01/2023	1800/1300			US	Kansas City Fed's Esther George
18/01/2023	1900/1400			US	Fed Beige Book
18/01/2023	2015/1515			US	Philadelphia Fed's Pat Harker
18/01/2023	2100/1600	**		US	TICS
18/01/2023	2200/1700			US	Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan
19/01/2023	0030/1130	***		AU	Labor force survey
19/01/2023	0900/1000	***		NO	Norges Bank Rate Decision
19/01/2023	1000/1000	*		UK	Index Linked Gilt Outright Auction Result
19/01/2023	1000/1100	**		EU	EZ Current Account
19/01/2023	1030/1130			EU	ECB Lagarde Panellist at World Economic Forum
19/01/2023	1100/0600	*		TR	Turkey Benchmark Rate
19/01/2023	1330/0830	**		US	Jobless Claims
19/01/2023	1330/0830	***		US	Housing Starts
19/01/2023	1330/0830	**		US	Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
19/01/2023	1400/0900			US	Boston Fed's Susan Collins
19/01/2023	1530/1030	**		US	Natural Gas Stocks
19/01/2023	1600/1100	**		US	DOE weekly crude oil stocks
19/01/2023	1700/1800			EU	ECB Schnabel in Finanzwende Webinar
19/01/2023	1800/1300	**		US	US Treasury Auction Result for TIPS 10 Year Note
19/01/2023	1815/1315			US	Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard
19/01/2023	2335/1835			US	New York Fed's John Williams
20/01/2023	2350/0850	***		JP	CPI
20/01/2023	0001/0001	**		UK	Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence
20/01/2023	0700/0700	***		UK	Retail Sales
20/01/2023	0700/0800	**		DE	PPI
20/01/2023	0745/0845	*		FR	Retail Sales
20/01/2023	1000/1100			EU	ECB Lagarde Panellist at World Economic Forum
20/01/2023	1330/0830	**		CA	Retail Trade
20/01/2023	1330/0830	**		US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
20/01/2023	1400/0900			US	Philadelphia Fed's Pat Harker
20/01/2023	1500/1000	***		US	NAR existing home sales
20/01/2023	1530/1630			EU	ECB Elderson Into at European Financial Services Roundtable
20/01/2023	1800/1300			US	Fed Governor Christopher Waller