MNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD: US Payrolls Coming Up

MONDAY

Switzerland CPI: Swiss CPI is expected to cool for a fourth consecutive month in June, with consensus looking for a 0.4pp deceleration to +1.8% y/y. This would be under the SNB target range for the first time since January 2022. On the month, prices are anticipated to tick up by +0.2% m/m. The SNB will be closely watching the core rate, which eased to +2.1% y/y in May after three months at a high of +2.5% y/y. At the June SNB meeting, the 25bps hike accompanied a revision lower for short-term CPI projections with year-end 2023 CPI projected at 2.0% for Q4 from 2.3% previously.

Final Manufacturing PMIs: Final manufacturing PMI prints are due on Monday, with services to follow on Wednesday. Advance PMIs for June suggested that the Eurozone economy had slowed sharply, with the service sector PMI dropping more than expected and the manufacturing PMI falling further into contractionary territory. In the US, the manufacturing PMI fell more than expected into contractionary territory and sat just above the lows from December of last year.

US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Consensus is looking for a marginal 0.2-point improvement in the ISM manufacturing PMI to 47.1 for June, following a larger 1.1-point uptick in the MNI Chicago PMI on Friday. This would imply eight consecutive months of contractionary business activity as falling New Orders continue to signal worrisome demand conditions in the US industry.

TUESDAY

Australia Rate Decision: The Bloomberg consensus leaning towards a no-change decision from the RBA in July, which is seen holding the Cash Rate target steady at 4.10%. Markets expect the rate to peak at 4.5% by November.

WEDNESDAY

France Industrial Production: Kicking off the round of major eurozone May IP data, French industrial production is seen contracting by -0.4% m/m, after a robust +0.8% m/m April expansion largely boosted by less strike action. At +0.3% y/y, 2023 June IP is expected to be only marginally stronger than last year.

Eurozone PPI: Headline eurozone producer prices are projected to enter deflationary territory for the first time since December 2020 in the May data, with consensus pencilling in a -1.6% y/y decline. PPI is seen declining by -1.8% m/m, after a more pronounced -3.2% m/m April fall. As a leading indicator for CPI, this signals a further reduction in eurozone goods inflation, which softened by 0.3pp to +5.5% y/y in the June flash report.

US Factory Orders: A +0.8% m/m rise in US factory orders is pencilled in for May, after the advance durable goods orders jumped by +1.7% m/m, led by a surge in transport orders, in particular aeroplanes and to a lesser extent auto.

THURSDAY

Germany Factory Orders: Preceding Friday’s German industrial production data, German factory orders will give indication demand conditions in May. Expectations are currently for a +1.2% m/m rebound, after volatile large-scale orders drove the -0.4% m/m April decline. Looking forward, the June manufacturing PMI found new orders fell at the sharpest rate in eight months, implying that current production is largely bolstered by past demand.

Eurozone Retail Sales: After flat May retail sales, euro-area retailing is expected to rise a modest +0.2% m/m in June. Consumer confidence improved slightly in June, with a small improvement in major purchasing intensions promising, albeit remining below-average, implying that weak consumption is likely to persist in the near-term.

US ISM Services PMI: Consensus is looking for a one-point improvement in the US ISM services PMI to 51.3 in June. This follows the 1.6-point decline in May, as the service industry lost momentum largely on the back of a pronounced deceleration in new orders. Whilst services activity remains robust, with an expansive PMI for five consecutive months, concerns regarding waning demand are beginning to materialise.

FRIDAY

Germany Industrial Production: German industrial production is expected to be flat in May, after muted growth at +0.3% m/m in April, implying lacklustre production levels. Recently German IP has diverged across sectors, with growth in construction and a jump in pharma outweighing engineering and auto contractions.

US Nonfarm Payrolls: US payroll data for June is projected to show another month of robust hiring, with around +225k payrolls anticipated after +339k. The household survey will be watched closely after particular volatility in May's report drove a 0.3pp jump in the unemployment rate, with analysts looking for a slight paring of this increase back to 3.6%. Annualised earnings data is expected to decelerate marginally from +4.3% y/y to +4.2% y/y in June. This follows the Fed’s June pause, and indication of the July meeting being “live” for the possibility of a hike, yet this move will become more apparent once the June CPI data is released.

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Flag	Country	Event
03/07/2023	2300/0900	**		AU	IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f)
03/07/2023	2350/0850	***		JP	Tankan
03/07/2023	0030/0930	**		JP	IHS Markit Final Japan Manufacturing PMI
03/07/2023	0130/1130	*		AU	Building Approvals
03/07/2023	0130/1130	**		AU	Lending Finance Details
03/07/2023	0145/0945	**		CN	IHS Markit Final China Manufacturing PMI
03/07/2023	0630/0830	***		CH	CPI
03/07/2023	0700/0300	*		TR	Turkey CPI
03/07/2023	0715/0915	**		ES	IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f)
03/07/2023	0745/0945	**		IT	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)
03/07/2023	0750/0950	**		FR	IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f)
03/07/2023	0755/0955	**		DE	IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f)
03/07/2023	0800/1000	**		EU	IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f)
03/07/2023	0830/0930	**		UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final)
03/07/2023	-	***		US	Domestic-Made Vehicle Sales
03/07/2023	1345/0945	***		US	IHS Markit Manufacturing Index (final)
03/07/2023	1400/1000	***		US	ISM Manufacturing Index
03/07/2023	1400/1000	*		US	Construction Spending
03/07/2023	1400/1000	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill
03/07/2023	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
03/07/2023	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
04/07/2023	0430/1430	***		AU	RBA Rate Decision
04/07/2023	0600/0800	**		DE	Trade Balance
05/07/2023	2300/0900	*		AU	IHS Markit Final Australia Services PMI
05/07/2023	0030/0930	**		JP	IHS Markit Final Japan Services PMI
05/07/2023	0145/0945	**		CN	IHS Markit Final China Services PMI
05/07/2023	0645/0845	*		FR	Industrial Production
05/07/2023	0700/0900	**		ES	Industrial Production
05/07/2023	0715/0915	**		ES	S&P Global Services PMI (f)
05/07/2023	0745/0945	**		IT	S&P Global Services PMI (f)
05/07/2023	0750/0950	**		FR	IHS Markit Services PMI (f)
05/07/2023	0755/0955	**		DE	IHS Markit Services PMI (f)
05/07/2023	0800/1000	**		EU	IHS Markit Services PMI (f)
05/07/2023	0830/0930	**		UK	S&P Global Services PMI (Final)
05/07/2023	0900/1100	**		EU	PPI
05/07/2023	0900/1000	**		UK	Gilt Outright Auction Result
05/07/2023	1255/0855	**		US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
05/07/2023	1400/1000	**		US	IBD/TIPP Optimism Index
05/07/2023	1400/1000	**		US	Factory New Orders
05/07/2023	1800/1400	*		US	FOMC Statement
05/07/2023	2000/1600			US	New York Fed's John Williams
06/07/2023	0130/1130	**		AU	Trade Balance
06/07/2023	0600/0800	**		DE	Manufacturing Orders
06/07/2023	0730/0930	**		EU	IHS Markit Final Eurozone Construction PMI
06/07/2023	0830/0930	**		UK	IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI
06/07/2023	0900/1100	**		EU	Retail Sales
06/07/2023	1100/0700	**		US	MBA Weekly Applications Index
06/07/2023	1215/0815	***		US	ADP Employment Report
06/07/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Jobless Claims
06/07/2023	1230/0830	**		CA	International Merchandise Trade (Trade Balance)
06/07/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Wholesale Trade
06/07/2023	1245/0845			US	Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan
06/07/2023	1345/0945	***		US	IHS Markit Services Index (final)
06/07/2023	1400/1000	***		US	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
06/07/2023	1400/1000	**		US	JOLTS jobs opening level
06/07/2023	1400/1000	**		US	JOLTS quits Rate
06/07/2023	1500/1100	**		US	DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
07/07/2023	0545/0745	**		CH	Unemployment
07/07/2023	0600/0800	**		DE	Industrial Production
07/07/2023	0600/0800	**		NO	Norway GDP
07/07/2023	0600/0800	**		SE	Private Sector Production
07/07/2023	0645/0845	*		FR	Foreign Trade
07/07/2023	0800/1000	*		IT	Retail Sales
07/07/2023	0830/1030			EU	ECB de Guindos Keynote Address at King's College
07/07/2023	1230/0830	***		CA	Labour Force Survey
07/07/2023	1230/0830	***		US	Employment Report
07/07/2023	1230/0830	**		US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
07/07/2023	1400/1000	*		CA	Ivey PMI
07/07/2023	1430/1030	**		US	Natural Gas Stocks
07/07/2023	1645/1845			EU	ECB Lagarde Panels Rencontres Economiques