Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
TUESDAY - NBH Decision
The NBH is seen moderating the pace of monetary policy easing to 75bps when it meets on Tuesday, with instability in Hungarian markets over the past month justifying the more cautious approach. Specifically, the potential amendments to the Central Bank Act and the emerging possibility of the re-blocking of EU funds have kept EUR/HUF pinned to cycle highs – a significant cause of concern for central bank officials.
WEDNESDAY - Riksbank Decision
The Riksbank are unanimously expected to leave policy rates on hold at 4.00% in March. Main interest will be on whether the door to a H1 2024 rate cut is opened any wider than at the February decision and if such a move is reflected in the updated rate path projection within the March Monetary Policy Report. The MNI Markets Team expects the updated rate path to indicate that rates will most likely be cut in Q2 2024, with risks skewed towards the June meeting. The current rate path sees the first full 25bps cut towards the end of 2025, though even the Riksbank acknowledged that this assessment is now outdated.
WEDNESDAY - SARB Decision
The SARB is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday after South Africa's CPI growth accelerated to a four-month high, moving away from the 4.5% Y/Y target mid-point, where the central bank is trying to anchor inflation and inflation expectations. Governor Kganyago continues to insist that the SARB's policy stance is unlikely to change until this goal is achieved in a sustained manner.
WEDNESDAY / FRIDAY - Spain, France and Italy Flash Inflation
The Eurozone March flash inflation round begins next week with releases from Spain, France and Italy. In Spain (Wednesday), HICP is seen accelerating compared to February due to a rise in VAT on electricity from 10% to 21%, with an early consensus of 3.3% Y/Y (vs 2.9% prior). Italian HICP (Friday) is also expected to rise to 1.5% Y/Y (vs 0.8% prior), while the French headline rate (Friday) is expected to moderate to 2.9% Y/Y (vs 3.2% prior). We will have to wait till after the Easter break for the German (Tue 2 April) and Eurozone-wide (Wed 3 April) figures. Early expectations are for EZ headline and core to continue decelerating. However, services inflation is once again at risk of remaining sticky, with the early Easter weekend and associated calendar effect adding an additional layer of uncertainty to the March release.
FRIDAY - US PCE
Analyst estimates after CPI and PPI releases looked for a 0.3% M/M increase (and very close to this in unrounded terms) but Fed Chair Powell said in FOMC press conference that they see it “currently well below 30bps” which is “not terribly high”. However, the Fed also sees it at 2.8% Y/Y (per consensus) which implies some upward revisions to recent months. More broadly, Powell characterized the Jan-Feb data as not raising anyone’s confidence on inflation sustainably returning to the 2% target but at the same time it hasn’t really changed the overall story of a disinflationary trend with bumps along the way. March inflation data will be watched even more keenly as currently we don’t know whether the start of year price increases were a “bump on the road or something more.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 25/03/2024 | 0800/0900 | ** |  | ES | PPI |
| 25/03/2024 | 1000/1100 |  | EU | ECB's Lagarde at EIB Climate Council | |
| 25/03/2024 | 1100/1100 | ** |  | UK | CBI Distributive Trades |
| 25/03/2024 | 1225/0825 |  | US | Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic | |
| 25/03/2024 | 1400/1000 | *** | | US | New Home Sales |
| 25/03/2024 | 1415/1415 | | UK | BOE Mann At Royal Economic Society Annual Conference | |
| 25/03/2024 | 1430/1030 | ** | | US | Dallas Fed manufacturing survey |
| 25/03/2024 | 1430/1030 | | US | Fed Governor Lisa Cook | |
| 25/03/2024 | 1530/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 25/03/2024 | 1530/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 25/03/2024 | 1700/1300 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Note |
| 26/03/2024 | 0700/0800 | * |  | DE | GFK Consumer Climate |
| 26/03/2024 | 0700/0800 | ** |  | SE | PPI |
| 26/03/2024 | 0800/0900 | *** | | ES | GDP (f) |
| 26/03/2024 | 1000/1000 | ** | | UK | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 26/03/2024 | 1200/0800 |  | CA | BOC Sr Deputy Rogers speaks in Halifax NS | |
| 26/03/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | Durable Goods New Orders |
| 26/03/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index |
| 26/03/2024 | 1255/0855 | ** | | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 26/03/2024 | 1300/0900 | ** | | US | S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index |
| 26/03/2024 | 1300/0900 | ** | | US | FHFA Home Price Index |
| 26/03/2024 | 1300/0900 | ** | | US | FHFA Home Price Index |
| 26/03/2024 | 1400/1000 | *** | | US | Conference Board Consumer Confidence |
| 26/03/2024 | 1400/1000 | ** | | US | Richmond Fed Survey |
| 26/03/2024 | 1430/1030 | ** | | US | Dallas Fed Services Survey |
| 26/03/2024 | 1530/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill |
| 26/03/2024 | 1700/1300 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 5 Year Note |
| 26/03/2024 | 1900/2000 | | EU | ECB Lane Lecture At Trinity College Dublin | |
| 27/03/2024 | 0030/1130 | *** |  | AU | CPI Inflation Monthly |
| 27/03/2024 | 0700/1500 | ** |  | CN | MNI China Liquidity Index (CLI) |
| 27/03/2024 | 0745/0845 | ** |  | FR | Consumer Sentiment |
| 27/03/2024 | 0800/0900 | *** | | ES | HICP (p) |
| 27/03/2024 | 0830/0930 | *** | | SE | Riksbank Interest Rate Decison |
| 27/03/2024 | 0900/1000 | | EU | ECB Cipollone At House of the Euro Event | |
| 27/03/2024 | 1000/1100 | ** | | EU | EZ Economic Sentiment Indicator |
| 27/03/2024 | 1000/1100 | * | | EU | Consumer Confidence, Industrial Sentiment |
| 27/03/2024 | 1100/0700 | ** | | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 27/03/2024 | 1230/1330 | | EU | ECB Elderson At Climate-Related Financial Risks Panel | |
| 27/03/2024 | 1430/1030 | ** | | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 27/03/2024 | 1530/1130 | ** | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Floating Rate Note |
| 27/03/2024 | 1700/1300 | ** | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 7 Year Note |
| 27/03/2024 | 2200/1800 | | US | Fed Governor Christopher Waller | |
| 28/03/2024 | 0030/1130 | ** | | AU | Retail Trade |
| 28/03/2024 | 0700/0700 | *** | | UK | GDP Second Estimate |
| 28/03/2024 | 0700/0700 | * | | UK | Quarterly current account balance |
| 28/03/2024 | 0700/0800 | ** | | DE | Retail Sales |
| 28/03/2024 | 0700/0800 | ** | | SE | Retail Sales |
| 28/03/2024 | 0800/0900 | ** |  | CH | KOF Economic Barometer |
| 28/03/2024 | 0855/0955 | ** | | DE | Unemployment |
| 28/03/2024 | 0900/1000 | ** | | EU | M3 |
| 28/03/2024 | 0900/1000 | ** |  | IT | ISTAT Business Confidence |
| 28/03/2024 | 0900/1000 | ** | | IT | ISTAT Consumer Confidence |
| 28/03/2024 | 1100/1200 | ** | | IT | PPI |
| 28/03/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | | US | Jobless Claims |
| 28/03/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 28/03/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | | CA | Gross Domestic Product by Industry |
| 28/03/2024 | 1230/0830 | * | | CA | Payroll employment |
| 28/03/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | | US | GDP |
| 28/03/2024 | 1345/0945 | *** | | US | MNI Chicago PMI |
| 28/03/2024 | 1400/1000 | ** | | US | NAR Pending Home Sales |
| 28/03/2024 | 1400/1000 | ** | | US | U. Mich. Survey of Consumers |
| 28/03/2024 | 1430/1030 | ** | | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 28/03/2024 | 1500/1100 | ** | | US | Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index |
| 28/03/2024 | 1600/1200 | ** | | US | USDA GrainStock - NASS |
| 28/03/2024 | 1600/1200 | *** | | US | USDA PROSPECTIVE PLANTINGS - NASS |
| 29/03/2024 | 2330/0830 | ** |  | JP | Tokyo CPI |
| 29/03/2024 | 2330/0830 | * | | JP | Labour Force Survey |
| 29/03/2024 | 2350/0850 | * | | JP | Retail sales (p) |
| 29/03/2024 | 2350/0850 | ** | | JP | Industrial production |
| 29/03/2024 | 0745/0845 | *** | | FR | HICP (p) |
| 29/03/2024 | 0745/0845 | ** | | FR | PPI |
| 29/03/2024 | 0745/0845 | ** | | FR | Consumer Spending |
| 29/03/2024 | 1000/1100 | *** | | IT | HICP (p) |
| 29/03/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | Personal Income and Consumption |
| 29/03/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | Advance Trade, Advance Business Inventories |
| 29/03/2024 | 1530/1130 | | US | Fed Chair Jerome Powell | |
| 29/03/2024 | 1700/1300 | ** | | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.