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MNI Inflation Preview Jul 2023: Services Stickiness Eyed In July Print

EUROZONE

While most attention this week is on the ECB’s monetary policy decision, focus for both markets and policymakers will swiftly turn to July’s flash inflation data round which begins Friday morning. PDF analysis here

  • As with June, there is a fairly wide range of estimates for core Eurozone Y/Y inflation, from 5.2% to 5.7% from the initial analyst reports we have seen, centring on a 5.4% median. That would represent limited progress from June’s 5.5% outturn. Headline is seen decelerating more sharply, to 5.2% from June’s 5.5% (with a relatively narrower range of estimates from 5.1-5.3%).
  • While goods and commodity price pressures continue to subside, they remain elevated for services – the latter of which was again the second biggest contributor to June’s print.
  • Our preview includes analysis of several key areas to watch, short outlooks for the national inflation prints prior to the eurozone release, and sell-side analyst previews.
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