MNI INSIGHT: PM May Could Drag Out Brexit Deal Vote To Late Q1

By Kevin Woodfield and David Robinson

     LONDON (MNI) - UK Prime Minister Theresa May's game plan is to run the

clock down as close as practically possible to the scheduled March 29 departure

date from the EU to boost the prospects of pushing her compromise Brexit deal

through Parliament, MNI understands.

     Despite government assurances today to 'respect the spirit' of a Jan. 21

deadline in current legislation by bringing May's deal back to Parliament by

that date, there is no longer any legal underpinning to this timescale.

     To give real teeth to her threat that it's 'my deal or no deal', May could

yet delay the 'meaningful vote' by MPs to as late as February or even early

March, calculating that other options favoured by large sections of a

Remain-majority Parliament will fall away through lack of time.

     Sir Nicholas Macpherson, UK Treasury Permanent Secretary from 2005 to 2016,

wrote in the London Evening Standard yesterday: "I would expect Mrs May either

to seek to extend the Article 50 process or bring some variant of her package

back to the Commons in February or early March. Faced at the 11th hour with a

choice of accepting a bad deal and going over the precipice ... MPs will

probably support the Prime Minister."

     --NO PLAN B

     MNI understands that there is no government plan B and running the clock

down is May's only strategy. Moreover, she can expect some help from Brussels,

which sees the deal that is on the table as substantially in the EU's interests.

     The most May can probably obtain, however, will be largely cosmetic if

solemn side declarations and/or letters, among them a bigger role for Parliament

in choosing future options under the deal. Any adjustments are expected to

amount to little more than underlining what the legally-binding Withdrawal

Agreement already sets out, with its controversial framework stipulating a

transition period extension and/or potentially never-ending UK-wide customs

union in the absence of an agreed future trading framework with the EU to

prevent the 'no Irish border 'backstop.

     The prospect of May seeking to push the meaningful vote down to the wire is

supported by explanatory notes on the Institute for Government (IfG) website.

     The EU Withdrawal Act (which became UK law in June to repeal the

legislation that took the UK into the bloc in 1972) stipulates the Jan. 21 limit

for the government to give Parliament a vote on a 'no deal' motion. But May has

already concluded a deal with the EU, the IfG points out, meaning the deadline

is no longer applicable. This gives the prime minister flexibility to stretch

her strategy in Parliament into March.

     "Therefore there is no time limit in domestic law for the meaningful vote,

it only needs to take place before the UK leaves on 29 March," the IfG states.

     Robin Walker, junior minister in the department for Exiting the European

Union, told Parliament today: "It is our clear intention that this house will

consider this matter before the 21st January and have the opportunity to decide

on the deal"

     Asked for further reassurance, Walker added: "We will have a vote in this

house, a motion before this house, the 21st January. That is in all scenarios I

talked to in my statement."

     Jill Rutter, Head of the IfG, tweeted this afternoon that: "govt has said

(it) will reschedule before 21 Jan ...(but doesn't think it is legally obliged

to .. and as many pointed out govt has not always met its commitments ...)."

     --MAY, EU CONTRIVANCE

     The EU's own time constraints would still apply should May succeed in

squeezing her compromise deal through Parliament. EU member states would need to

ratify the agreement by a qualified majority and it would also require the

approval of the European Parliament. But Brussels, masterful itself at playing

the clock to its best advantage, can be impressively fleet footed when it feels

the need.

     And May will need all the drip-fed support she can get from Brussels if she

is to hold the line through to the latter part of Q1 - with leadership vultures

circling in her own party as well as among the opposition that will be on to her

new plan.

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203 865 3829; email: jason.webb@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$B$$$,M$E$$$,MT$$$$,MX$$$$,MGB$$$]