MNI INTERVIEW: June Jobs Report To Undercount Unemployed: BLS

By Brooke Migdon

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - A similarly large number of furloughed workers were

potentially misclassified as employed in the Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs

report for June as in previous months, a BLS official told MNI, meaning the

official unemployment rate may understate actual joblessness by several

percentage points for a fourth consecutive month.

     An official inquiry into the misclassification of furloughed workers as

employed is "very much still in the works," Julie Hatch Maxfield, BLS associate

commissioner for employment and unemployment statistics, said in an interview,

indicating the issue has not yet been resolved. The BLS wrapped up its

interviews for June earlier this week and the report is due July 2. 

     "Collection was about what you would expect given where we are" in the

investigation, she said. "This wasn't something that we washed our hands of and

forgot, but we're still working on the issue." 

     BLS estimated in May that roughly 5 million people were affected by the

misclassification error. If they were all counted as unemployed, the jobless

rate would have been 3 points higher last month.

     --REMOTE DATA COLLECTION

     In-person interviews suspended by the BLS in March have also not resumed

despite many states reopening in May and June, so "from that point of view, May

and June [data collection] are similar," she said.

     Hatch Maxfield said the Census Bureau, which co-produces the household

survey seen in the BLS' monthly jobs report, is aiming to restart personal

visits in a "very limited fashion" starting in July.

     Millions of workers in May were misclassified as employed but absent from

work due to 'other reasons' and the unemployment rate was 3 percentage points

higher than reported, not including seasonal adjustments, the BLS said this

month, touching off an investigation into the error that also skewed official

jobs numbers in March and April.

     Preliminary findings should be published somewhat soon, according to Hatch

Maxfield, but a more in-depth analysis of the data will be made public "further

down the road."

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202 371 2121; email: brooke.migdon@marketnews.com

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