MNI INTERVIEW: UK May Issue Real-Time Economic Statistics

By David Robinson

     LONDON (MNI) - Real-time, online economic activity data sets could be

accredited as national statistics, revolutionising the traditional flow of

packaged monthly releases, the UK's top statistics regulator said in an

interview.

     Certified national statistics comply with a code of practice for

trustworthiness and quality, enhancing their credibility with investors and

policy makers. Ed Humpherson, Director General for Regulation at the UK

Statistics Authority, said high-frequency measures of data on port movements,

VAT returns and traffic flows, already published by the Office for National

Statistics on an experimental basis, could qualify for this status in future.

     Bank of England Chief Economist Andy Haldane has championed these new,

cutting-edge big data sets, noting in a speech this month how a disruptive

Brexit could potentially be reflected in extreme moves in port flows.

     Official data does not have to come in the standard monthly or quarterly

40-page-plus packages, said Humpherson, speaking to MNI at an Economic

Statistics Centre of Excellence event.

     "The essence of a national statistic is its quality and its usefulness,"

Humpherson said, adding that it would be up to bodies such as the ONS to decide

whether to invest the resources in particular data series.

     So far the ONS has dipped its toe in the water with monthly releases of the

new activity data but Humpherson said he could imagine "something which updates

in a constant flow having a national statistic designation."

     While new data series move towards qualifying as national statistic, others

can lose this status, as was the case with the Retail Price Index in March 2013,

due to its methodological flaws.

     Humpherson expressed regret about official foot-dragging on moving away

from RPI, which, despite no longer being a national statistic, is still used for

inflation-linked Treasury bonds as well as for indexing student loans and for

rail prices. The government recently failed to make its own deadline for a

response to a critical report on RPI from a House of Lords committee.

     Humpherson said that in hindsight he should have been more publicly

critical of the continued use of the flawed index, which the ONS had hoped to

eventually replace with the consumer price index including housing, known as

CPIH, which itself ran into technical issues.

     "We could have had a louder voice about the judgement we were making,"

Humpherson said.

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2223; email: david.robinson@marketnews.com

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