-
Policy
Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM POLICY: -
EM Policy
EM Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM EM POLICY: -
G10 Markets
G10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Launch MNI PodcastsFixed IncomeFI Markets AnalysisCentral Bank PreviewsFI PiFixed Income Technical AnalysisUS$ Credit Supply PipelineGilt Week AheadGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance CalendarsEZ/UK Bond Auction CalendarEZ/UK T-bill Auction CalendarUS Treasury Auction CalendarPolitical RiskMNI Political Risk AnalysisMNI Political Risk - US Daily BriefMNI Political Risk - The week AheadElection Previews -
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
-
Commodities
Commodities
Real-time insight of oil & gas markets
-
Credit
Credit
Real time insight of credit markets
-
Data
-
Global Macro
Global Macro
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
Global MacroDM Central Bank PreviewsDM Central Bank ReviewsEM Central Bank PreviewsEM Central Bank ReviewsBalance Sheet AnalysisData AnalysisEurozone DataUK DataUS DataAPAC DataInflation InsightEmployment InsightGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance Calendars EZ/UK Bond Auction Calendar EZ/UK T-bill Auction Calendar US Treasury Auction Calendar Chart Packs -
About Us
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Real-time Actionable Insight
Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessMNI INTERVIEW2: PBOC Needs To Be Ready For H2 Slowdown
The People's Bank of China should be prepared to respond flexibly to a likely economic slowdown in the second half of the year, as credit risks rise and inflation peaks, a senior advisor told MNI in an interview, saying current policy settings may be on the tight side.
GDP growth could slow to about 6% by the fourth quarter, as consumption and investment remain soft and exports weaken, said Zhang Ming, deputy director of the Institute of Finance and Banking under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. Defaults by local-government-owned companies, local-government funding vehicles and small- and medium-sized property developers may also continue to increase, noted Zhang, adding that monetary policymakers may have to step in as fiscal authorities wind down stimulus.
While consumer price inflation could hit annual levels above 2.5% some months, it should average about 1.5% during all of 2021, weighed down by sluggish consumption, manufacturing investment and property market curbs. Producer price inflation could peak near 10% within the next three months, but average 4%-4.5% for the year.
TIGHT POLICY
The current monetary policy setting may be a bit tight, Zhang said, noting that growth in the M1 and M2 measures of money supply fell by 1.3 and 0.9 percentage points respectively on a monthly basis in April and total social finance slid by CNY1.25 trillion versus the same period in 2020.
China may also have to contend with rising U.S. yields later in the year, though these will likely hit overvalued assets, Zhang said, saying that U.S. stocks, commodities and bitcoin could take a bigger hit than Chinese equities. The yield on 10-year Chinese government bonds could be volatile around current levels of 3.1%, given the country's uneven economic recovery and subdued inflation, he said.
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.