MNI: More China Bankers See Tighter MonPol: PBOC Survey

--China Banker Economic Confidence Up, Economy Running at Normal Temperature

     BEIJING (MNI) - Bankers are more confident about the China's economic

outlook, according to the results of a quarterly survey of bankers at about

3,200 bank branches by the People's Bank of China.

     The survey, published Thursday, found that more Chinese bankers think

monetary policy has been tightened, with 26.7% believing that to be the case,

4.6 percentage points higher than in the previous quarter. Nearly 73.2% believe

monetary policy is "appropriate," 5.4 percentage points lower than the previous

quarter.

     An index that measures bankers' confidence in macroeconomic developments

rose 2.8 percentage points from the last quarter in 2017 to 81.9% in the first

quarter this year, the central bank said in a statement on its website. Any

index reading above 50 suggests respondents are optimistic.

     As for the "economic temperature" of the country, 80.7% of the bankers

surveyed indicated the current economy was at a "normal" temperature, 3.8

percentage points higher than last quarter, and 16.5% of bankers said they

thought the economy was "cold," 2.8 percentage points lower than in the previous

quarter. 

     --BANK LOAN DEMAND UP

     The PBOC said demand for bank loans expanded in the first quarter based on

the survey, with its index measuring loan demand increasing to 70.9%, compared

with a reading of 65.7% in the last quarter.

     The banking industry "Climate Index" stood at 69.7%, 1.4 percentage points

higher than the previous quarter and 2.8 percentage points higher than the same

period last year, the survey showed. 

     In its household survey covering 20,000 families, the PBOC said less people

-- 31.4% -- expect housing prices to rise over the next quarter, a modest

decrease from 32.0% in the previous quarter. Under these expectations, the

survey also found that less people plan to buy a house in the next three months,

with the ratio of would-be buyers at 22.9%, down from 23.2% in the previous

quarter.

     --INCOME HOPES HIGHER

     An index measuring how people feel about their current income edged up 1.7

percentage points to 55.4%. Some 89.2% respondents indicated that their incomes

were higher or unchanged, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over the forth

quarter last year. The index measuring confidence in future income rose to

54.2%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous quarter.

     The Q1 employment index rose one percentage point to 45.8%, and the index

on employment expectations rose 0.7 percentage points to 54.1%, the PBOC

statement said.

     Another PBOC survey of Chinese businesspeople found they are also more

confident about the economy. The confidence index for entrepreneurs from about

5,000 enterprises rose to 74.3% in the first quarter, 2.5 percentage points

higher than the forth quarter and 12.7 percentage points higher than the same

period last year.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +86 (10) 8532-5998; email: flora.guo@marketnews.com

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com

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