MNI Morning Global Briefing

     LONDON (MNI) - It seems the calendar, like many of us, are still lagging

after the Easter holiday with Thursday fairly quiet.

     We kick off with German manufacturing orders over the month of February,

out at 0600GMT, with analysts expecting the data to deliver a partial recovery

from the 3.9% m/m/ decline in January. A 2.0% m/m rise has been pencilled in. 

     Switzerland's March CPI data follows, set for release at 0715GMT. A month

prior, prices rose by 0.4% m/m and 0.6% y/y respectively. 

     The wave of European Services PMI data starts in Spain at 0715GMT, looking

to build on February's strong showing of 57.3. 

     Next up at 0745GMT is Italy (Feb: 55.0), followed by France (Feb: 56.8) at

0750GMT and Germany (54.2) 0755GMT with each accompanied by its respective

composite reading. 

     That run culminates with the overall Eurozone print, out at 0800GMT,

forecasted to remain flat from a prior figure of 55.0.

     Also at 0800GMT, German VDMA machine orders data will look to build on a

strong 14% y/y showing from a month ago. 

     Contrastingly, the UK Services PMI at 0830GMT has analysts pencilling in a

decline of 1.5 points to 54.0.

     Before moving to the West, the final pieces of Euro Area data are the

Industrial Producer Prices and Retail Trade packs (both out at 0900GMT).

Industrial factory gate prices grew by 0.4% m/m or 1.5% y/y in February while

Euro area retail trade were sales down 0.1% on the month. 

     The US data is more short and sweet today with Challenger Monthly Layoff

Intentions getting the afternoon calendar underway at 1130GMT. Year-over-year,

job cuts were down 4.3% in February. 

The level of initial jobless claims (1230GMT) is expected to rebound by 9,000 to

224,000 in the week ending March 31, that after a 12,000 decrease the previous

week. 

     Seasonal adjustment in the early spring is difficult due to the timing of

holidays. The four-week moving average would fall by 1,500 in the coming week,

as the 230,000 level in the March 3 week drops out of the calculation, assuming

the MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions.

     The international trade gap (also at 1230GMT) is expected to widen only

slightly to $56.8 billion in February from a $56.6 billion gap in January. The

advance estimate of the Census goods trade gap widened modestly to $75.4

billion, with exports up 2.2% and imports up 1.4%.

     Also at 1230GMT, Canada releases its international merchandise trade data,

with the deficit expected to widen a touch from CAD1.9 billion to CAD2.0

billion. 

     For those wanting more, turn your attention to Rio de Janeiro where BBK

Board member Andreas Dombret speaks at the FGV University, Brazilian Institute

of Economics (IBRE) Research Centre.

     Household spending in Japan is expected to grow but at a lower pace than

previously recorded. Year-over-year spending previously came in at 1.9% in

January but analysts anticipate growth in February lower at 0.1%. The data will

be released at 2330GMT and is followed by preliminary average wages data at

0000GMT. Prior data has total, real and base wages y/y growth at 0.7%,0.9% and

0.2% respectively. 

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com