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MNI NBH Preview - April 2021: Seen on Hold With Hawkish Tone

Hungary Central Bank

MNI Point of View: NBH seen on hold, with strong focus on EURHUF

  • The National Bank of Hungary (NBH) is expected to keep their benchmark and overnight deposit rate steady at 0.6% and -0.05%, respectively, as policymakers aim to keep financial conditions as loose as possible in order to stimulate economic activity, which has been significantly impacted in Q1 due to the worsening COVID19 situation.
  • Some economists have estimated that the jump in fuel prices could push the annual change in consumer price inflation to nearly 5 percent in April, but NBH will let inflation run hot in the short term as policymakers have not raised any concerns over inflationary pressures in the long-run.
  • NBH policymakers will also closely watch the key resistance on EURHUF stands at 370; a significant breakout above that level could lead to a tightening response from NBH policymakers this quarter (on the 1W deposit rate, which is decided every Thursday).

    Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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NBH CB Prev -APril.pdf


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