Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Executive Summary
- The NBP is likely to hike its policy rate by 25bps to 6.75% on September 7 to continue its fight against inflation. This move will increase the benchmark to its highest level since November 2002.
- Inflation continues to accelerate in the CEE region, with Polish CPI surging to 16.1% in August, its highest level since October 1996.
- Market expectations on the ‘terminal rate’ have been falling in the past two months to 7.5% - 7.75%, with the FRA 6Mx9M currently trading at 7.65%.
Link to full preview:
MNI Poland CB Preview Sep 7.pdf
The National Bank of Poland (NBP) is likely to hike its policy rate by 25bps to 6.75% on September 7 to continue its fight against inflation. This move will increase the benchmark to its highest level since November 2002.
Inflation continues to accelerate in the CEE region, with Polish CPI surging to 16.1% in August, its highest level since October 1996. Analysts have continued to review their year-end target to the upside, now expecting CPI inflation to be a 13.7% (versus 10.80% in the beginning of May). Inflation in Poland (as in CEE) remains mostly driven by the strong rise in global energy and commodity prices (i.e. electricity, nat gas, coal), in addition to food prices. Debates whether inflation is peaking or will peak in the coming months are still running, but there were no signs of an end to the upward pressure on prices in August.
Market expectations on the ‘terminal rate’ have been falling in the past two months to 7.5% - 7.75%, with the FRA 6Mx9M currently trading at 7.65%.
Source: Bloomberg/MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.