October 04, 2024 10:36 GMT
MNI NBP Review - October 2024: Amping Up Dovish Rhetoric
The NBP left interest rates unchanged but Governor Glapinski's rhetoric shifted to the dovish side.
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Executive Summary:
- The MPC kept interest rates on hold, as expected.
- Governor Glapiński admitted a dovish shift in his views.
- The Governor said 2Q25 is the optimal timing for a rate cut.
Full review document including a summary of sell-side views here:
The Monetary Policy Council’s (MPC’s) decision to leave interest rates unchanged came as no surprise, was widely expected by NBP watchers, and fully priced in by money markets. The recent uptick in inflation, which runs at almost twice the level of the NBP’s target, prevented the Council from cutting interest rates. However, the subsequent press conference with Governor Adam Glapiński brought further signs of a dovish shift in the sentiment of the Governor himself as well as the wider rate-setting panel. The official suggested that the MPC could initiate a rate-cutting cycle in 2Q2025, while leaving the possibility of an earlier start on the table.
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