Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Executive Summary:
- The Bank are set on lifting the deposit rate by another 25bps to 0.75% at the March meeting
- Burgeoning inflationary pressure and a fading COVID headwind should translate to a higher, steeper rate path projection
- This puts policy above the neutral rate at the end of 2023
A new set of economic projections is due, extending the end of the forecast horizon out to the end of 2025. The forecasts are expected to show acute near-term inflationary pressures, with the prospect of a wage-price spiral countering downside risks emanating from the Ukraine crisis and any subsequent economic slowdown. This argues in favour of more aggressive policy over the next 24 months, putting rates projections above 2.00% at end-2023.
This pattern of policy tightening sets up the Norges Bank to raise rates by 25bps at each meeting that coincides with a quarterly policy report this year – a policy sequence that meets the bank’s “gradual” criteria that the board see as a requirement to meeting their policy objectives.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.