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MNI Norges Bank Preview - November 2023: Prepwork For Dec Hike

Executive Summary:

  • Guidance dictates Norges Bank should keep rates unchanged, opting for a December hike instead
  • Markets and sell-side analysts are well primed for a peak rate of 4.50% by year-end
  • September’s MPR showed the bank foresee the possibility for rate cuts from H2’24

Full PDF preview including summary of sell-side views here:

MNINBPrevNov23.pdf

The bank followed through with their guidance and hiked rates by a further 25bps at the September meeting, signalling strongly that the next opportune meeting for further tightening will come in December, when the Bank have their next set of economic projections and rate path projections. As such, an unchanged decision is wholly expected and well priced for November, leaving markets to look through this month’s rate-setting decision.

Figure 1: September MPR pointed to likely final hike in December

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